2. TOWER OF VISAS?

Conference tumbleweed is every minister’s worst fear, and Jeremy Wright yesterday had the humiliation of speaking to a near-empty hall (even Ruth Davidson had vacant seats). Years ago, I remember Dominic Grieve suffered a similar fate when he was Shadow Home Secretary. As activists queue round the block to get into the Boris Show, it will be interesting to see how many prefer him to Jacob Rees-Mogg, who has a rival fringe just beforehand. Yet Sajid Javid is perhaps the person who has most to fear. His own speech is due at noon and Boris’s is at 1pm – and the punters here in Birmingham have been prepared to stand in a line for up to an hour to guarantee a seat to hear their favourite Brexiteers.

Javid is the real rising star in the Tory leadership stakes and any ovations he gets today will be watched keenly for their length and fervour. What may get them on their feet are his new immigration plans post-Brexit, plans that he has jointly announced with the PM overnight in a clear attempt to seize back some of the initiative from Bojo.

The details are sketchy so far but the broad brush includes: new curbs on long-term migrants, including a minimum salary threshold to ensure they are not competing for jobs that could otherwise be recruited in the UK; immediate family will be allowed to accompany high skilled migrants but only if sponsored by employers; all EU and non-EU short-stay tourists and business people would have passports scanned at e-gates in airports, train stations and ports. The PM sidestepped the issue of whether Brits will face new delays, curbs or checks on work and travel but I guess reciprocity will demand exactly that. Business will be worried if new US-style ‘visa waivers’ are required to hop over to Europe and vice versa.

But beyond all the talk of migration curbs, it’s clear the Government want some flexibility to keep EU workers coming here. Chequers had a telling line about “mobility partnerships” for key sections of the economy. The PM tried a sleight of hand today, by declaring on the one hand “immigration rules are not part of our discussions with the European Union” and in the next breath admitting that ‘elements’ of the EU/UK trade deal will include ‘mobility’. “We will be ensuring that we recognise the needs of our economy,” was another telling phrase. Still, she is sticking to her net migration target and some business may also be worried by her line that “I’m not saying that lots of different sectors of economy” will have exemptions like agricultural workers. The battle within and without Government on this very issue is still ongoing.

3.  DEALER’S CHOICE

As we get closer to the crunch on Brexit talks, the shifting sands are fascinating to watch. Yesterday, Dominic Raab was explicit at the IEA fringe that he backed the idea of slashing corporation tax to 10% if there was a ‘no deal’ outcome. He said it could help the UK cope with ‘short term buffeting’ and sounded much more relaxed than Hammond, May, Clark and others about surviving on WTO terms. Sajid Javid also upped the ante at a fringe, saying no deal would allow £40bn to be spent on tax cuts. Javid also praised Singapore and said after Brexit it would be possible for the UK to “have the ability to look at some rules and regulations” currently in place. Labour has pounced, pointing out that the Tories are reviving the threat of a low tax, low regulation ‘offshore’ model for the economy.

Of course, ‘no deal’ is still viewed as unlikely both in London and Brussels. Perhaps more interesting than the sabre-rattling are the moves behind the scenes to get compromise. Bloomberg had a scoop yesterday that the UK is easing its opposition to checks on goods between Northern Ireland and Britain, but on condition that the EU shows some give too. Raab hinted the report was not wrong, saying the UK was “open to looking at options on the regulatory side”, though he added “it’s absolutely crucial that any backstop has finality to it”. On Today, May gave her own hints of a breakthrough, suggesting flexibility on regulation.

And the Times reports the PM is ready to propose a “grand bargain” which would keep Britain tied to European customs rules on goods after the transition period ends in December 2020. It quotes a senior minister saying “We have to move to unlock the talks and that is going to mean compromising on signing comprehensive free-trade deals immediately.” Of course any fudge on signing such deals could lead to someone like Liam Fox quitting the government (he’s in South Korea today so will miss the fun).

I suspect as ever it will come down to the language used to sweeten the pill. The UK may remain in a customs union, but neither side will call it that. The Irish border backstop (re-Christened by May this morning as a ‘guarantee to the people of Northern Ireland’) could be variously interpreted as either temporary or indefinite. No.10 will need to keep the DUP on board, especially as Arlene Foster hinted to the BBC should could back a Canada-plus deal, and Boris. I heard one senior former Cabinet minister say privately yesterday that Foster was ‘a very strange woman’. But she still has plenty of clout.

BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…

Watch this ‘Newcastle-under-Lyme Conservative’, the curiously named ‘Enoch Manto Liu’ get kicked out of a fringe after slapping a delegate. What was a Chinese state media journalist doing infiltrating the Tory conference?

4. GOOGLEWHACKED

Amid all the noise around Brexit and Boris, the Chancellor yesterday slipped out a pretty important announcement. He declared that if international agreement cannot be sorted, the UK will “go it alone with a ‘Digital Services Tax’ of its own”. This is all about getting Google and Facebook and others to “contribute fairly to funding our public services”. Hammond has already asked President Obama’s former chief economist, Jason Furman, to review digital competition regime.

But critics think the last thing the UK needs post-Brexit is a unilateral tax that will push the online giants to relocate. And the Telegraph quotes a warning from the Coalition for a Digital Economy that the real losers would “not be the tech giants, but growing British tech businesses”. Tech firms are still spooked by that nugget buried in the 2017 Tory manifesto: “Some people say that it is not for government to regulate when it comes to technology and the internet. We disagree.”

5. MATT OR GLOSS

Matthew Hancock is one of the few Cabinet ministers who has a big increase in funding heading down the track, thanks to the £20bn promised by the Treasury and No.10 (though Labour say’s it’s still not enough). Today, he’ll try to meet twin concerns about a winter NHS crisis and elderly people bed blocking in hospital, with an emergency £240m pumped into social care.

The money, to be channelled through local authorities according to their relative adult social care needs, could buy 71,500 domestic care packages or 86,500 “reablement” packages, he will say. Let’s see how local councils respond. In the past they’ve been pretty sceptical about Government spin on similar announcements.

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