Next week yet another set of coronavirus restrictions comes into force, a five-day relaxation to allow families to spend Christmas together after a bleak year of lockdowns and social-distancing.

Three different households will be able to mix from December 23 to December 28 and overnight stays will be allowed as part of the festive changes.

But is it a good idea? The latest data on infection rates suggests not – cases are on the rise in most of the country and London and key parts of the south-east are about to be put into the toughest tier 3 restrictions under which you can’t meet anyone indoors who you don’t live with, let alone two whole other households.

Health secretary Matt Hancock said higher infections in the south-east may be in part due to a newly identified variant of coronavirus that is growing faster than the existing one.

The entire “Christmas bubbles” plan is now under intense scrutiny and an increasing number of people are calling for it to be scrapped entirely – including two of the country’s leading health journals who published a rare joint editorial on Tuesday.

Where does the government stand?

On Monday the line was that there were “no plans” to scrap the five-day Christmas pause in Covid restrictions, but Downing Street urged the public to be cautious.

The prime minister’s official spokesperson said Boris Johnson had set out what the Christmas rules would be, but added that the public “should remain cautious” and “follow guidelines, not just to keep themselves safe but others safe and to keep the transmission of the virus down over the Christmas”. 

However, asked on Tuesday if No.10 was looking at cutting the length of the exemption from five days to three, or cutting bubbles from three households to two, the prime minister’s official spokesperson said it would keep regulations under review.

He said: “We have set out the guidance for Christmas bubbling arrangements but we obviously keep all advice under constant review.”

Wales’ first minister has described the four nations approach to Christmas as a “hard-won agreement” and said he will “not lightly put it aside”.

Mark Drakeford said the choices facing the UK were “incredibly difficult” and “grim”, adding: “I have read in my own email account over the last couple of days heart-rending pleas from people not to reverse what we have agreed for Christmas.

“People who live entirely alone, who have made arrangements to be with people for the first time, they say to me that this is the only thing that they have been able to look forward to in recent weeks.”

What have ministers said?

On Monday, business secretary Alok Sharma defended the Christmas freedoms in an interview with Sky News, saying families “come together” during the break. 

“I think it is right and balanced and proportionate and that is not going to be changing.” 

But an increasing tone of caution can be detected in comments from other senior members of the government.

On Tuesday, Steve Barclay said people gathering in Christmas bubbles should only do “the minimum”, warning the rules should not be “misinterpreted”. “We’re not going from tier 3 to some sort of tier 0,” he said.

He also said he would not be visiting his own parents over Christmas but would be seeing other members of his family.

Acknowledging that it had been a “very difficult” year for families and that many would want to meet up to celebrate Christmas together, he said: “I want to see my own parents over the Christmas period.

“I won’t see my parents over Christmas, but I will see my parents-in-law and those are the decisions many families will take.

“We’ve got to trust the British people to act responsibly and do the minimum that is possible for them in their family situation.”

Oh, and here’s what other ministers said when asked if they personally would be taking advantage of the government’s bubbles scheme. (Hint: most of them evaded the question.)

What’s Labour’s position?

Labour leader Keir Starmer has called on the PM to convene an emergency Cobra meeting to review the current relaxation of restrictions over Christmas, following the sharp rise in coronavirus cases.

MP Chris Bryant had earlier said in a tweet he thinks the plan is “a mistake” and urged people to “take our own measures and decide to limit our contacts severely”.

And London mayor Sadiq Khan has called for the government to rethink plans, telling Sky News: “I heard the government say yesterday they haven’t ruled out further changes. I would encourage the government to look at their rules over Christmas.

“What I say to the government is: I’m not sure you’ve got it right. In fact, I’m sure you haven’t got it right in relation to the relaxations over Christmas.”

Khan denied he was adopting a “Grinch” approach to Christmas, adding: “[It’s] not being a Grinch at all. I think what [I’m] doing is following the science.”

What do scientists say?

A number of leading scientists spoke out against the plans since the weekend.

Professor Stephen Reicher, of the University of St Andrews, said: “Right now we are heading towards disaster.

“Given high levels of infection across the country and the increasing levels in some areas such as London it is inevitable that if we all do choose to meet up over Christmas then we will pay the price in the new year.”

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the Sage scientific advisory panel, suggested it “might be best to postpone meeting up with vulnerable relatives” rather than see them over Christmas.

He added: “We should remember that just because we can meet up with two other households, it doesn’t mean that we should.”

David Nabarro, a World Health Organisation (WHO) special envoy working on Covid-19, said the price of such a relaxation “could well be very high”.

Urging people to think carefully about their plans, he told Times Radio: “Just ask yourself, is there any way in which you can perhaps not have the family get-togethers this year?

“It’s much better not to do it when there’s this kind of virus about.”

The health journals

In only their second joint editorial in 100 years, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) and Health Service Journal (HSJ) called on the prime minister to change tack because of rising cases of coronavirus across parts of England.

They both warned that hospital bed capacity risked being overwhelmed if there was a Christmas relaxation, calling on the government to “reverse its rash decision to allow household mixing […] in order to bring numbers down in the advance of a likely third wave”.

Crucially, the journals say a third wave would hit non-Covid treatments hardest, as it “could wipe out almost all the reductions in waiting times for elective procedures achieved in the past 20 years”.