Like so much of the last four years, the US presidential election is shaping up to be completely unpredictable. Here’s your ultimate guide to the predictions and the result.
What time will we know the result?
First things first – we hate to break it to you but there is a chance there isn’t actually going to be an “election night” as you know it – even if you stay up to the wee hours, we might not find out who won until days after.
As with pretty much everything in 2020, the coronavirus pandemic will have a huge impact on how votes are counted.
Because of social-distancing, more Americans are taking up the option of mail-in voting or in-person early voting rather than all crowd into a polling station on election day.
The rules are different for each state, but many don’t allow these votes to be counted until election day, a process that takes longer than counting traditional in-person votes on the day.
And there are some circumstances where they can still be counted even if they are received in the days after.
There’s another twist – Republicans, spurred on by Trump’s constant dismissal of the pandemic, are generally content to turn up to a crowded polling station on the day while Democrats are playing it safer and going for the mail-in option.
So it’s possible that for much of the night it could look like everything is going Trump’s way with a later massive surge for Biden.
In short, don’t trust the early numbers.
When to start tuning in
If you’re determined to watch on the night, then accept it’s going to be a late one.
The first polls don’t close until 11pm UK time, so consider a lengthy nap during the day and coffee on tap to to power you through.
There will of course be plenty of things during the day to entertain you, not least Donald Trump’s Twitter.
Last time round he was up bright and early at just before midday UK time and, with the benefit of four years of hindsight, remarkably polite, calm and generally just rather cheerful.
Of course four years in the job means Trump’s Twitter output is rarely so positive these days so expect more nonsense like this on the day.
UPDATE: Trump has posted a YMCA supercut, obviously…
How to watch the election
In normal times there’d be any number of bars and venues holding all night events. Though US election night sneaks in just before the start of the UK’s national lockdown, bars still close at 10pm, so that isn’t much good.
Not to worry, though – you won’t be short of options for coverage as the BBC, ITV and Sky News are all broadcasting rolling coverage of the night from 11.30pm, 11pm and 10pm respectively.
Of course everyone with even the merest hint of an opinion will likely be tweeting along but we’d recommend following the musings of HuffPost’s own polling editor Ariel Edwards-Levy:
Pollster Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight:
And Nate Cohn of The New York Times:
What are the options for election night?
1. 2016 – again
The polls are wrong again. Joe Biden fails to get enough support in states that Donald Trump won narrowly in 2016 – places like Pennsylvania and Michigan – while losing badly in longshots like North Carolina and Georgia. Were no states to change hands, the result would be a repeat of four years ago, with Joe Biden winning 232 electoral votes and Donald Trump 306.
A total of 270 electoral votes is needed to win the US presidential election. Each state is allotted a fixed number of electoral votes, based roughly on the size of its population. Whoever wins the popular vote in a state also wins all of that state’s electoral votes – with two exceptions being Maine and Nebraska, which divide up their electoral votes partly based on who wins the popular vote.
2. Biden falls short
In this scenario Joe Biden gains a couple of extra states, but doesn’t pick up quite enough electoral votes to make it to 270. For example, winning Michigan (worth 16 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10) would increase Biden’s tally from 232 to 258: 12 short of the winning line. Donald Trump’s tally would fall from 306 to 280, but he’d still be safely above the 270 mark. Trump can therefore afford to lose one or two states to his opponent, but no more than that.
3. Narrow win for Biden
Gaining just three states – the former “blue wall” of Michigan (16 votes), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10) – would be enough to put Joe Biden above 270, taking his tally from 232 to 278. Alternatively Biden need only pick up Florida (29 votes) and Arizona (11) to also be over the 270 mark. Or he could go for a mix of northern and southern states – for example, Pennsylvania and Florida. Biden has a number of paths to reach the magic number of 270, though a narrow victory could be more likely to invite legal challenges – justified or otherwise – from Trump.
4. A landslide for Biden
If the polls turn out to be not just snapshots but accurate predictions, or even underestimates of Joe Biden’s popularity, then Biden could be heading for seven or even eight gains from Donald Trump. An example of a landslide win would be if Biden picks up Arizona (11 votes), Florida (29), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10): a total of 119 additional electoral votes, leaving him with a grand total of 351 compared with Trump’s 187. By way of a comparison, in 2008 Barack Obama won 365 votes to John McCain’s 173.
5. A tie
This is possible. Were Joe Biden to pick up Michigan (16 votes), Pennsylvania (20) and one of Maine’s four electoral votes, both he and Donald Trump would be tied on 269 electoral votes. Similarly, if Biden gained Michigan (16) plus Wisconsin (10) plus Arizona (11), both he and Trump would end up with 269 each. In this situation, the newly-elected House of Representatives would choose the president, with each state delegation having one vote. A majority of states (26) would be needed to win.
The key swing states to watch out for
A handful of states will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
These are the “swing states” – so called because they will help swing the overall result either away from Trump and towards Biden, or back to Trump to give him a second term in office.
Most states are not swing states and will not change hands at this election – but safe states alone are not enough to get either Trump or Biden to the White House.
Florida
Electoral votes: 29
Polls close: Midnight GMT
Historical voting record: Highly unpredictable, could go either way.
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Initial results are expected at midnight GMT. Officials can begin scanning ballots more than three weeks before Election Day, but results cannot be generated until after polls closed.
Georgia
Electoral votes: 16
Polls close: Midnight GMT
Historical voting record: Unpredictable, could go either way.
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Georgia does not allow the counting of ballots until after the polls close so if it’s a close race then we may not get the results until one or two days later. If it’s a landslide for either candidate then we should know on the night.
New Hampshire
Electoral votes: 4
Polls close: Between midnight and 1am GMT.
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Clinton
When will we know the result? Like Georgia, New Hampshire does not allow ballots to be counted until after polls close meaning a close race result may not be decided until after election day.
North Carolina
Electoral votes: 15
Polls close: 12:30 GMT
Historical voting record: Unpredictable, could go either way.
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? North Carolina allows early in-person voting and there’s been a huge uptake in the state with more than 600,000 people doing so in the first two days it became available. These will likely favour Biden so early results released when polls close may skew his way but a fuller picture of all votes should be available by 5am GMT.
Ohio
Electoral votes: 18
Polls close: 12:30am GMT
Historical voting record: Unpredictable, could go either way.
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Early in-person and mail-votes will be reported by midnight though these will skew towards Biden. Votes cast on the day will be reported later but a clear idea of when clear result will be available has not been given by officials.
Michigan
Electoral votes: 16
Polls close: 1am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Most ballots cannot be counted until election day and a preliminary result may not be ready until Friday 6 November.
Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 20
Polls close: 1am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Pennsylvania officials have already said there won’t be a reliable result on the night and most votes will take “a matter of days” to count and may not be ready until the weekend after the election.
Texas
Electoral votes: 38
Polls close: 1am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Republican
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Frustratingly, officials have not given a clear indication of when a result is to be expected in what is always one of the most contested states of the election.
Wisconsin
Electoral votes: 10
Polls close: 2am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Wisconsin officials are confident a result will be know on the night with the last counts being known sometime between 7am and 10 am GMT on Wednesday.
Minnesota
Electoral votes: 10
Polls close: 2am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Clinton
When will we know the result? Officials expect preliminary results to be known shortly after the polls close with a full result around 4pm GMT Wednesday.
Arizona
Electoral votes: 11
Polls close: 2am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Mail-in votes that will skew towards Biden should be known around 2am GMT but a fuller picture is not expected until after Wednesday.
Nevada
Electoral votes: 6
Polls close: 3am GMT
Historical voting record: Leans Democratic
2016 result: Clinton
When will we know the result? Unhelpfully, Nevada officials have said a proportion of the votes will be counted by 4pm GMT Wednesday but don’t know how big this proportion will be.
Iowa
Electoral votes: 6
Polls close: 3am GMT
Historical voting record: Unpredictable, could go either way.
2016 result: Trump
When will we know the result? Iowa officials have said results will be announced in a “timely fashion” but did not elaborate.
Infographics supplied by Statista.