Boris Johnson has moved to quell a backbench Tory rebellion over new Covid curbs by offering MPs a vote on what happens when the second lockdown ends on December 2. 

The prime minister confirmed on Saturday that England would go into a fresh national lockdown from Thursday, amid dire warnings from experts that case numbers were exploding and the NHS would run out of critical care beds by early December. 

But Conservative backbenchers, led by the chair of the powerful 1922 committee Graham Brady, are preparing to resist the move when the Commons votes on the lockdown on Wednesday, saying the restrictions are harming businesses and are an attack on individual liberties. 

With Keir Starmer’s Labour backing Johnson’s month-long shutdown, the rebels are unlikely to defeat the government.

But now Johnson has offered MPs angry about the new lockdown an olive branch by guaranteeing a vote on what replaces the country-wide lockdown after December 2. 

The government plans to return to the system of local lockdown, with different tiers 1, 2 and 3 deciding how onerous restrictions are, but Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said on Sunday that the blanket national lockdown could continue. 

It is not yet clear whether the vote will be enough to satisfy rebels, which include many of the new Tory MPs from the so-called red wall in the north and Midlands.

Johnson is due to make a statement in the Commons on Monday afternoon, when he will underline to MPs the urgency of new measures and say he will “seek to ease” England back into the tiered system. 

He will say: “Models of our scientists suggest that unless we act now, we could see deaths over the winter that are twice as bad or more compared with the first wave.

“Faced with these latest figures, there is no alternative but to take further action at a national level.

“At the end of four weeks, on Wednesday, December 2, we will seek to ease restrictions, going back into the tiered system on a local and regional basis according to the latest data and trends.”

Brady had strong words for the PM on BBC Radio 4′s Westminster Hour on Sunday night, telling the broadcaster: “If these kinds of measures were being taken in any totalitarian country around the world, we would be denouncing it as a form of evil.”

It comes as former Brexit Party and Ukip leader Nigel Farage announced he was creating yet another new political party – Reform UK – that would be anti-lockdown. 

Meanwhile, others have criticised the government for ignoring advice to introduce a “circuit breaker” lockdown earlier. 

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) had advised the PM to bring in a two-week shutdown on October 23. 

During the second lockdown, all pubs, restaurants, hospitality venues and leisure facilities will close, but – unlike in March – schools, colleges and universities will stay open. 

In what will be a relief for many workers, the furlough scheme, which sees the government pay 80% of lost wages, will be reactivated to run until December 2.

Johnson stressed that, during the month-long lockdown, people should only leave their home for education, work, to shop for essential items, recreation outdoors, for medical reasons or to escape harm.

The prime minister’s official spokesperson told a Westminster briefing on Monday: “Yes, these regulations will automatically expire ahead of December 2 and MPs will have a vote on the proposed way forward.”

He added: “As a matter of hard legal fact the regulations will expire on 0001 December 2 and MPs will get a vote on what replaces the regulations. The intention of the government is to go back into a tiered system which is based on a local and regional basis.”