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“If the evidence requires it, we will not hesitate to take further measures.” Boris Johnson’s line in his latest press conference on Covid sounded awfully familiar. Since June, he’s used the same phrase repeatedly to try to underline that his relaxation in the rules was conditional.
But some believe he has indeed hesitated to act at various stages in the pandemic since the summer. The charge is that instead of following a clear strategy, he’s dithered, then tweaked, then repeated the whole process again. Hesitation, deviation and repetition, all marking him out as Westminster’s worst “Just A Minute” contestant, when time is of the essence in containing the virus. Maybe Alok Sharma was onto something when he suggested that asking the PM for clear Covid guidance was “quiz show” journalism.
The pressing need for action was underlined by those scary graphs at the No.10 briefing. As I’ve said before, the case numbers aren’t what most concern Johnson (and Patrick Vallance today said for the first time that the real numbers at the height of the pandemic were probably around 100,000, compared to 7,000 today).
No, it’s the hospitalisations and intensive care stats that look most alarming, at least in terms of the steepness of their increase in recent weeks. The ICU spikes for the north west, north east, midlands and London started in the first week of this month. The data ran only up to September 20, so the past week could be even worse. The number of over-85s going into hospital also showed this disease jumps all too easily from younger groups to the vulnerable.
While those admitted to hospital are literally trying to find breathing space, the PM tried to buy himself more time today, saying the latest version of his plan (10pm curfews and even tougher curbs locally) “will take time to feed through”. But given that his own Rule of Six was swiftly augmented within barely a week, the perception of inconsistency is not surprising.
The problem was summed up by Vallance’s blunt verdict that “we don’t have this under control”, itself a stark contrast to the PM’s tone. But Johnson let slip perhaps his real thinking when he said that the current wave may be “a more localised phenomenon” than the first wave, suggesting local measures were sufficient because England in September looked a bit like Italy in March.
Within seconds however Chris Whitty was making clear that while concentrated outbreaks was a possible explanation, it was “far too early” to conclude that. Vallance added “there is evidence of spread everywhere”. The PM himself finally conceded the “danger” that the public would get the wrong message that there was no national threat or challenge.
When 14 million people are under tougher restrictions and the capital city outside those curbs is seeing a sharp rise in hospitalisations, that doesn’t feel like a ‘local’ problem any more. Although Johnson today promised Tory MPs a vote on any “significant national measures”, Labour’s votes would ensure they went through (allowing Keir Starmer to say his party was bailing out the country while Tories squabbled). Polls suggest the public may welcome tougher curbs, including a national ban on households mixing indoors.
As with “moonshot” rapid testing and vaccine speculation, it felt once again as though the PM was so desperate for any hint of an alternative to a second national lockdown that he was grasping wildly at it. And Vallance put responsibility firmly at No.10’s door when he said that science can provide advice but “ministers need to make decisions on when and how to act”.
One difficulty is that when it comes to acting on evidence, Johnson has a chequered record. Only tonight, the Commons science and tech committee demanded the publication of any evidence for the 10pm curfew. The suspicion lingers that it was cobbled together as a last-minute alternative to a nationwide “circuit break” or ban on household mixing.
The bigger problem is that in trying to treat this second wave as a “localised phenomenon”, the PM does indeed risk undermining a wider national sense of unity, simple public health messaging and common action. Johnson today dodged the question of what level of hospitalisations or deaths would trigger new national lockdown curbs. But in failing to do so he robbed business, the NHS and the public of a chance to plan for the worst.
The fact remains that while he had a step-by-step strategy for coming out of lockdown, the PM has no similar strategy for going back into it. Maybe his current approach will pay off in coming weeks. Right now, his ‘whack-a-mole’ mallet looks broken. And he may be forced to chuck a huge net over the nation to prevent those Covid molehills from turning into mountains. At that point the Sharma quiz show would shift from “Just A Minute” to “I’m Sorry I Haven’t A Clue”.