“TWO METRES APART!!!”
This short, concise and very precise command has been drummed into us Brits over the last few months as one of the most effective ways we can help stop the spread of coronavirus.
On the face of it makes sense – viruses can be spread by droplets expelled in coughs, sneezes and passionate renditions of Hallelujah, so the further away you are when one of these things happen, the better, right?
Well not quite actually, as HuffPost UK will now explain.
What is the actual rule?
This first thing that needs stated is it’s not actually a rule, more guidance to be followed “where possible”, according the the government’s own website.
The Department for Business (DfB) expands upon this by saying where it is not possible businesses “should do everything practical to manage the transmission risk”.
In fact, Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, said at a daily Downing Street press briefing this week that the two-metre advice is “not a rule”.
He added: “It is wrong to portray this as a scientific rule that says it is two metres or nothing – that is not what the advice has been and it is not what the advice is now.”
This is quite a significant difference and is why the two-metre rule is currently in the headlines.
What are businesses saying?
Boris Johnson is under a bit of pressure to reduce the rule so that schools can reopen and it will also have a huge effect on pubs and restaurants that want to reopen their doors before they go bust.
Organisations representing the hospitality industry have called for the rule to be reduced to one metre as they fear many venues will not be able to make enough money as they simply won’t be able to fit enough people in.
How has the government responded?
By doubling down on the two-metre distance and insisting it is a rule.
At PMQs on Wednesday, Boris Johnson promised to “keep that two-metre rule under constant review”.
So where does it come from?
1930. Seriously.
Research from nearly a century ago found that the droplets released in coughs or sneezes travel around one to two metres. Being the cautious nation of worriers that we are, authorities decided it would be best to stick to this upper limit.
Isn’t there anything more… modern?
Yes, lots.
In a thoroughly modern study published this very month in the medical journal The Lancet, scientists concluded that the risk of being infected is estimated to be 13% within one metre, but only 3% beyond that.
It concludes: “The findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis support physical distancing of one metre or more and provide quantitative estimates for models and contact tracing to inform policy.”
So am I completely safe so long as I stay one metre from everyone?
No. While the risk of 3% at two metres is small, it’s still a risk and this is what the government is weighing up while it considers reviewing it.
There are of course other things that can be done to further reduce the risk such as the wearing of face masks, but pushing one aside every time you take a mouthful of spag bol or sip a pint isn’t exactly on the practical side.
One factor that is practical albeit weather-dependent, is the inside/outside distinction.
Researchers in Japan have estimated coronavirus is 19 times more likely to be passed on inside that it is outside.
This of course throws open the possibility of relatively safe beer gardens but this week Johnson said they will not be reopened yet as “roiling” punters risk further spread of coronavirus.
An increase in restaurant seating outdoors is yet to be addressed but the UK could look to Lithuania for inspiration where there are plans to turn the capital of Vilnius into a vast open-air cafe.
What do other countries do?
Guidance from the World Health Organisation states people should keep a distance of one metre from each other and China, Denmark, France, Hong Kong, Lithuania and Singapore are examples of countries that follow this.
South Korea goes with 1.4 metres and Australia, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, 1.5 metres.
The US, imperial dinosaurs that they are, go with 1.8 metres (six feet).
Only Canada, Spain and the UK go the full two metres.
The government’s official website (my italics): “Keep your distance if you go out – 2 metres apart where possible”.
Anything else I need to know?
It’s important to remember that catching coronavirus from someone sneezing in your face isn’t the only way it can be transmitted – touching a surface contaminated with the virus and then touching your face is the other main route.
There is also the “aerosol” route – tiny particles small enough to travel in the air rather than being expelled in larger droplets from a cough, for example, and then falling to the ground.
Currently the jury is out on whether or not coronavirus can be airborne – it’s only been around for a few months so it’s just one of many unknowns.