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The number of people who have died in hospitals across the UK after contracting coronavirus has risen by 453 in 24 hours.

The increase consists of 366 in England, 44 in Scotland, 26 in Wales and 17 in Northern Ireland.

With deaths in care homes and the community, that number grows to 693.

It brings the working total to 29,427.

But the government tally, when it is released later today, will be significantly higher as it includes deaths in care homes and the community.

Earlier on Tuesday, data released by the Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency revealed that at least 32,375 people who died across the UK by April 29 had Covid-19 recorded on their death certificates as a factor.

So what do all the numbers really tell us?

We are likely past the ‘peak’ of the epidemic curve

Although today’s numbers are higher than those announced yesterday, the data firms up the assertion by the government and its top scientists that we are now past the “peak” of the epidemic curve.

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) reported 180 deaths on March 30, rising to a peak of 980 on April 10.

Since the second week of April, there has been a more or less steady drop in the number of coronavirus deaths.

Dr. Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, a lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College, told HuffPost UK there was a “clear downwards trend” in the number of people dying after contracting coronavirus.

She suggested this trend will likely continue, with the number of deaths decreasing week by week.

But she stressed that the decline had only just began, and that there was no knowing for sure whether the death toll would continue to decrease at the current rate, or stay the same.

“We need to watch and learn from what other countries have done, in how they’ve eased their social distancing measures,” she said.

Today’s increase does not reflect the true number of deaths

Today’s increase includes deaths that were recorded over the 24 hours to 5pm yesterday. It also includes deaths from earlier days that have only now been recorded centrally.

It can take more than a day to verify and record the death of a person, for example if there is a confusion over test results or a delay in submitting data from a particular health trust.

Similarly, the true number of deaths over the last 24 hours is likely to be higher than we think. Many of the recent cases will not yet have reached the government’s statisticians and will instead appear in future counts, artificially elevating those. 

The definition of a ‘Covid-19 death’ is important

Dr Mieke Van Hemelrijck, a reader in cancer epidemiology at King’s College London, warned that we should be careful comparing these numbers to those of other countries.

 

 

Belgium leads the world in deaths per head of population, but its high count is to do with the way it counts fatalities, including all the deaths in nursing homes – even those untested for coronavirus. Those account for more than half of the overall figure.

We should be careful in our optimism

While the numbers indicate that we are experiencing fewer deaths, Dr Van Hemelrijck warned against rushing to make positive statements.

“Yes, the death rates are going down,” she told HuffPost UK. “But we have to be very careful in understanding that they are just crude numbers.

“We need to understand how the deaths are counted and what we define as a ‘Covid-19 death’”.

Instead of just looking at the total number of deaths taking place, she advised looking at the rate of hospitalisations across the UK.

“If we keep getting hospitalisations then it will take over resources, which will be problematic.”

If hospitals become overwhelmed, then patients with chronic illnesses such as cancer will likely fall through the cracks.

Dr Van Hemelrijck added: “We run the risk that once we are post-Covid, that we will have a backlog of patients suffering from advanced conditions, because we didn’t manage to pick them up early enough.”