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Time after time

In politics, as in comedy, timing is everything. For Boris Johnson, the time was out of joint in 2016, when he first tried to become PM. Three years later, with his party and the country sick of Brexit delays, he cruised to victory in both the Tory leadership race and the general election.

Today, as he tried to reassure the nation about coronavirus, Johnson’s overarching message was that it was not just a question of what to do, but when to do it. Making “the right decisions at the right time”, based “on the latest and best evidence”, was critical to the fight against the disease in the UK, he said.

As he stood once more between chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientist Sir Patrick Vallance, the prime minister conceded that it sounded “slightly counter-intuitive” to point out that shutting schools and cancelling football matches could do more harm than good.

Whitty offered invaluable support, stressing that there was a real risk that if the government intervened too early in restricting normal daily life, the public would “understandably get fatigued and it will be difficult to sustain this over time”.

Politically speaking, what was really “slightly counter-intuitive” was the sight of Johnson himself resisting the cheap headline of a draconian crackdown, and the tempting rhetoric of an all-out “war” on the virus. He couldn’t resist a spot of hand-shaking in Westminster Abbey today, but did dutifully point out he ought not to because alternative greetings sent the ‘subliminal’ message that hand-washing was very important.

It was 20 years ago this year that Tony Blair famously called for “eye-catching initiatives” to maintain his popularity, and all his successors loved to be seen ‘doing something’ in a time of crisis. Actually not doing something (yet), even if that’s what the best advice suggests, is a difficult concept for most politicians of all stripes.

Rory Stewart, who was meant to be unlike most politicians, proved today he is all too like them. In what felt like an act of desperation in his battle to get Londoners to realise he’s running for the mayoralty of their city, Stewart called on the government to act “much more aggressively” to contain coronavirus, demanding schools be closed, all “medium and large gatherings” cancelled, all passengers coming from hotspots “tested and quarantined”.‌

To be fair, some of this seems to stem from Stewart’s frustration when he was International Development secretary, when the World Health Organisation delayed in designating as a global health emergency an Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of Congo. But given the weight of UK scientific and medical advice about coronavirus, Stewart’s call to arms felt like populist tripe.

That’s not to say populist tripe can’t be, well, popular. No.10 knows there is a growing drumbeat among some of the public for tougher action, not least as other countries seem to be taking stringent measures. True to form, Nigel Farage was quick to claim the government seemed to think “the economy matters more than saving lives”.

Yet, to take just one example, the chief scientist today pointed out taking temperatures at airports was largely pointless because many of those arriving from Italy would show no symptoms. Government sources added that some countries have gone ‘too soon’ on some plans that since backfired.‌

The one area where the government’s critics do seem to have a point is on what arrivals from Italy should actually do. While testing them all may be needless, advising them to self-isolate makes much more sense. And tonight, the Foreign Office finally said those arriving from Italy ″subsequent to Italian government decision’ should do just that, and stay at home for 14 days.

It was left to health secretary Matt Hancock, during his Commons statement, to throw some severe shade in Stewart’s direction today. “The broader point about the response to this virus is that it is very different from Ebola,” he told MPs. “It spreads in a different way and its mortality rate is very different, so it is very important that we fight this disease rather than fighting the last war.” Feel the burn, Rory. The message was direct: you’re not just in bad company with Farage, you’re facts are wrong.

None of which is to play down how serious this crisis is, and will be. Within a fortnight, the government is likely to be advising even those with mild respiratory symptoms (ie a common cold) to self-isolate for seven days. The NHS is gearing up for a massive challenge, buying respirators, reducing testing times and taking on 700 extra staff for 111 calls.

But as No.10 continues to follow the advice of its experts, perhaps the best statistic we learned today came from the chief scientist. Delay, with the right steps at the right time, could reduce by 50% the numbers affected at peak of this outbreak in Britain, he said. And the mortality rate could be reduced by up to 30%.‌

There’s a long way to go and there’s the risk of a fresh outbreak next winter too. But if Johnson does indeed manage to keep deaths in the UK to a minimum during a summer ‘peak’, even his strongest critics may have to admit that he’s acted responsibly. Perhaps the most responsibly of his entire career. For all our sakes, we had better hope it’s not been in vain.

Quote Of The Day

“It’s absolutely critical in managing the spread of this virus that we take the right decisions at the right time.”

Boris Johnson

Monday Cheat Sheet

A fifth person died due to coronavirus in the UK.

Share prices around the world suffered their biggest falls since the financial crisis, following the twin impact of coronavirus and crude oil price drops. The new “Black Monday” saw London’s top shares fall nearly 8%, equivalent to £125bn wiped off the value of major UK firms.

The House of Commons and the House of Lords commissions insisted there are no plans to suspend parliament and they would act entirely in line with the advice of Public Health England. Matt Hancock told MPs: “I will be doing all that I can to make sure Parliament stays open through this process.‌

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned the UK now had to “think about the trade-offs” in any UK-EU trade deal.‌

Former equalities chief Trevor Phillips described as “pure political gangsterism” Labour’s decision to suspend him over allegations of Islamophobia. He was supported by shadow minister Khalid Mahmood.‌

A former Scottish government official has accused Alex Salmond of “pouncing” on her and taking her clothes off in his official residence while he was the country’s first minister. Salmond denies carrying out a total of 14 sexual assaults on 10 women.

What I’m Reading

How Trump Is Struggling To Control The Coronavirus Narrative – Vanity Fair

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