There is now medical evidence that the implementation of Universal Credit has led to a decline in people’s mental health.

A nine-year study published on Thursday by the Lancet Public Health Journal shows the controversial welfare reforms have led to an increase in the prevalence of mental health issues among unemployed recipients.

Not only that, but with 5.5m more people expected to move on to the system in the coming years, there could be a flood of demand around the corner for already stretched mental health and social care services.

The Lancet researchers followed more than 52,000 working-age people from England, Wales and Scotland – and the findings revealed the introduction of Universal Credit was associated with a 6.6% increase in the prevalence of “psychological distress”.

Recipients of the benefit, which combines the six former main welfare payments into one, have reported struggling to make ends meet while waiting weeks on end for their first initial payout, forcing them to resort to turning off their heating or visiting foodbanks.

“Our study supports growing calls for Universal Credit to be fundamentally modified to reduce these mental health harms,” said Dr Sophie Wickham from the University of Liverpool, which led the research.

“So far, the government has only looked at the impact of Universal Credit on the labour market, and there are no plans to assess its effect on health and wellbeing.

“With a further 5.5m recipients of existing benefits expected to claim Universal Credit over the next few years, this expanding group may exacerbate pressures on already stretched mental health and social care services.”

The Department for Work and Pensions insisted the study didn’t prove a link between Universal Credit and distress.

Experts say the number of people reporting mental health problems in the study would equate to an estimated 63,674 out-of-work people experiencing “clinically significant” levels of psychological distress nationally, of whom more than a third (21,760) may have become clinically depressed.

The government is currently investigating 69 suicides believed to be linked to the overhaul of the benefits system.

By the end of the study in 2018, 1.6m people were receiving Universal Credit in England, Scotland and Wales, including 73% of unemployed people. That number has since risen to around 2.3m.

It is the first to quantify the possible impact of Universal Credit on mental health – but its authors cautioned that the benefit was implemented as part of broader welfare changes that may also have contributed to the mental health toll.

Researchers analysed data from 197,111 interviews with 52,187 people of working age as part of the Understanding Society UK Longitudinal Household Panel Study.

Mental health was assessed by trained interviewers using the General Health Questionnaire, with a higher score indicating psychological distress. Participants were also asked about their employment status, where they lived, and personal demographics.

The researchers found all socioeconomic groups were affected similarly, but said the mental health of people with low levels of education was more likely to be affected by the reform, because they are more likely to be unemployed.

Report co-author Professor Dame Margaret Whitehead said: “Given the mounting evidence of substantial mental health harms related to Universal Credit, it is crucial that the government conducts a robust health impacts assessment of all welfare reforms, including Universal Credit.

“With nearly two thirds of households in the UK receiving some kind of welfare benefit, any changes to the welfare system – even those with small individual effects – could have major implications for the nation’s health.” 

The authors particularly questioned the five-week wait for initial payments and sanctions for those who deemed not to have met their conditions for receiving the benefit.

They said future studies should also be carried out on other groups of people, including those in work.

The DWP spokesperson added: “People coming to the Jobcentre are often doing so at a difficult time in their lives, and there is a range of support available for those with mental health conditions.

“We know that the vast majority of people on Universal Credit are satisfied with their experience.”