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Rebel yelp
The actual decision on Huawei had been telegraphed (the 5G of its day folks, Victorians loved it) weeks in advance. That, plus the newly-assertive power of the whips in a majority government, may be one reason why the Tory backbench backlash was muted today when foreign secretary Dominic Raab appeared in the Commons.
Before anyone makes a judgement on exactly what the decision involves, I’d guide them towards this expert blog by GCHQ’s cyber expert Ian Levy. But Boris Johnson’s big decision, to allow the Chinese firm limited access to our next generation telecoms network, has certainly caused deep unease among several MPs who are beginning to question his strategic judgement.
It’s not just the worry among Brexiteers that the US will now play even more hardball on a UK-US trade deal (spoiler: they were always going to play hardball). Donald Trump, who conducts his international interactions more like Mafia protection rackets than mutual alliances, may not need much provocation to do that.
Congress, of course, has the big say over such trade deals. Republican senator Tom Cotton won the prize for most eye-catching quote, declaring: “I fear London has freed itself from Brussels only to cede sovereignty to Beijing.” And the condemnation was cross-party, with Democrat congressman Ruben Gallego attacking “this penny pinching action”, adding “our special relationship with the UK has to be reconsidered in light of this”.
As it happens, despite all the blood-curdling warnings from people like US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, our senior intelligence officials have had no threats from their counterparts of any loss of intelligence-sharing capability as a result of the Huawei decision. Such intel is transmitted via super-encrypted networks built by trusted homegrown firms and is nowhere near the 5G issue.
But the real reason that Tory backbenchers (and some ministers) are upset is that they genuinely fear the consequences to national security of a “high risk vendor” getting even a foothold in a technology that will cover huge areas of our future lives. And they are not impressed by the defence that Huawei has been here so long (since 2003) and is so embedded that it is now too difficult and costly to strip out of our current 4G systems.
It’s precisely because our intelligence officials have long experience monitoring Huawei that No.10 is so bullish. “Our world leading cyber security experts know more about Huawei than any country on earth, and are satisfied that any risk can be managed,” a senior Whitehall source said today.
Officials talk of ‘market failure’ forcing the UK into today’s decision. There are only three big firms capable of doing 5G here – Huawei, SonyEricsson and Nokia – and relying on just two would give them too much power over cost and timings. This whole headache for Johnson would disappear if Samsung had decided that European 5G infrastructure was worth investing in (as it does in the US) and the Brits hope their 35% cap today (Huawei was on course for 60% market share without any intervention) will encourage new players.
Although we were told today that the new policy was not a trade-off between security and commerce, and that the economic benefits of not banning Huawei were secondary, there’s no question this is a big factor. A total ban would have set back 5G several years and cost tens of billions in lost growth, given how crucial AI and other tech is to solving our productivity problem.
Among cabinet ministers there is so far endorsement. The National Security Council gave strong support today, although no one wants to give details after Gavin Williamson’s epic resignation (“NSC is like Fight Club,” one source joked today). And yet Tory backbenchers see a glimmer of hope in the fact that this decision is now subject to primary legislation (until a new law is passed, the policy operates through GCHQ guidance to the phone industry).
“This is not the end,” one MP told me. “This was not a defeat, we will have legislation that can be amended. We are not having our tummy tickled. And we are regrouping.” Even with a majority of 80, potential rebels think there may be 40 Tory MPs ready to back an amendment that reduced that 35% to a lower figure. Labour and the SNP, who were both very down on the idea of cost-cutting coming before long-term security, could easily ally with Tory MPs. I know it sounds far fetched now, but I also wouldn’t rule out resignations from government.
Today’s ‘disappointed’ Tory backbench responses in the Commons were more of a rebel yelp than a rebel yell. So far, Trump has also been measured in response, and No.10 didn’t give any clue of animosity in their read-out of his phone call today with Johnson. But there’s trouble afoot.
Quote Of The Day
“The only way to protect our safety is to ban it”
David Davis on Huawei and UK 5G
Cheat Sheet
Boris Johnson’s plan to end free movement and introduce new immigration controls after Brexit will cut economic growth and barely improve people’s standard of living, the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) concluded. It also said a “points-based immigration system” was a soundbite not a policy.
An internal Labour party report presented to its ruling NEC has been ridiculed for trying to ‘whitewash’ the role of controversial community organisers in the election. Separately, the party sent an email to parliamentary candidates, advising any feeling stressed to seek help, including ringing 999 if ‘at risk of immediate harm’.
Theresa May earned around £50,000 for a speech at a dinner for PWC in Davos, Robert Peston revealed. Not quite the £100k commanded by Cameron, and a strange choice of venue for a woman who famously attacked the global elite’s ‘citizens of nowhere’.
What I’m Reading
The future of telecoms in the UK – Ian Levy, NCSC
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