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The Big Mo?

Ah, the Big Mo. Everyone knows that momentum can really help in politics, but can Momentum? Well, backers of Rebecca Long-Bailey will be hoping that the grassroots network will have a decisive impact on the Labour leadership race after its overwhelming endorsement of her today. More than 70% of its members (who responded to a ballot) endorsed its endorsement of her.

Created by Jon Lansman after Corbyn’s first election in 2015, Momentum has certainly fulfilled its early aims of embedding his politics, expanding member-led democracy and harnessing the energy of a new generation of young activists – as well as attracting older leftwingers who left under Neil Kinnock, John Smith, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

In internal party elections, Momentum’s reach – and just as importantly its organisation and discipline – has been impressive. Its slate for NEC elections swept the board in constituency rep elections and in other key levers of power such as the conference arrangements committee and National Constitutional Committee. Its offshoot The World Transformed has brought a freshness and debate to party conference that underlined its reputation.

In general elections, Momentum has undoubtedly led the way in social media campaigning too. Although its ability to go viral was curtailed in 2019, its influence in crafting slick, direct videos – with a sense of fun as well as punch – led to the Johnson campaign copying its tactics. As Long-Bailey put it herself today: “I am proud and beyond grateful to be backed by an organisation that has revolutionised how we campaign.”

Within minutes of its endorsement, Momentum put out a new video, promoting her speech in Salford last May, in which she set out why the 40th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher coming to power was a moment to reflect on the legacy of council homes rented by private landlords and British Gas not in the hands of ‘Sid’ but of corporates from overseas.

But Momentum’s critics believe its influence is wildly overblown. Far from ‘revolutionising’ campaigning, they say its main achievement in December was to send hundreds of young idealists to doorsteps where they were confronted with the reality of just how loathed Corbyn and Corbynism was. Even in election post-mortem meetings, however, many Momentum members still felt their conversations had been ‘persuasive’ – often to the disbelief of older hands in local parties.

As for numbers, Momentum says it has around 40,000 out of the roughly 500,000 party members in Labour. That’s less than 10%. In the controversially worded (‘Yes/No’ for Long-Bailey) ballot of its membership, only 7,000 people took part.

Now that’s impressive if you’re conducting an opinion poll (which are usually 1,000 or more respondents), but the low participation rate overall has given succour to her opponents. Momentum stresses the low take-up was because of the short notice and short period of the ballot (48 hours), and will be hoping for a bigger turnout in the leadership race itself.

But turnout is important. Critics have long believed the Lansman movement did so well in all those NEC elections precisely because of low turnouts among the wider party membership. This leadership contest will inevitably have a high participation rate. So too will the concurrent by-elections for places on the NEC itself (Nav Mishra and Claudia Webbe are now MPs), which will be targeted by Momentum’s opponents to further shift power away from the Left.‌

Still, centrists who were hoping Jess Phillips or Keir Starmer would attract huge numbers of like-minded people to the party as ‘registered supporters’ have tonight seen those hopes dashed. In 2016, a massive 160,000 people signed up, but this time just 14,700 stumped up the £25 fee. They will hope that the increase in full members (the deadline is Monday), estimated to be 60,000 since the polling day defeat, will yield an influx of non-Corbyn blood.

As for Momentum itself, this leadership election will test whether it really has the clout many assume. It could also provide some lessons for the US presidential election too. Momentum has strong links with the Bernie Sanders campaign and I’m told many of the American counterparts were ‘gutted’ by the huge Corbyn defeat, and fear it spells trouble in their own primaries.

Only last night, Sanders tweeted about his movement being ‘hated’ by the 1%, the bankers, etc but ‘we are going to win’. If that sounded familiar, it was no coincidence. Momentum members will be hoping Sanders can borrow the 2016/17 Corbyn magic, rather than the 2019 reality check.

As she prepares to formally launch her campaign on Friday, perhaps Long-Bailey’s biggest task of all is to show she can pitch to those who were never in, and never want to be, part of Momentum itself. Only then can she get a Big Mo of her own.

Quote Of The Day

“Rebecca is at the heart of a new and diverse generation of socialists who recognise that we cannot return to the politics of the past.”

Momentum endorse Rebecca Long-Bailey

Cheat Sheet

Justice secretary Robert Buckland said the government is planning some “constitutional plumbing” to prevent the courts from getting embroiled in the political arena.

Boris Johnson has admitted defeat over plans to get Big Ben to bong to mark Brexit. His spokesman drily pointed out the Commons authorities had said there “may be potential difficulties in accepting money from public donations”. One government source said the Commons had been ‘intransigent’.

Knife crime has reached a 10-year high, with 2,286 knife and weapon offences formally dealt with by the police and courts in England and Wales last year a 3% rise on the previous year.

Northern Ireland politicians criticised the £2bn settlement handed to Stormont as “an act of bad faith”. But secretary of state Julian Smith hit back on Twitter: “let’s remember MLAs have been off work 3yrs at a cost of £15m+ in salaries”.

What I’m Reading

Putin Aiming To Join World ‘Leaders For Life’ – Axios

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