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My way, or the Huawei?

Boris Johnson famously quit Theresa May’s government because he felt her soft Brexit would turn the UK into a ‘vassal state’ of the European Union. But now that he’s PM himself, is Johnson in danger of handing British sovereignty instead to the United States? If Tony Blair was George Bush’s poodle, is Johnson now Donald Trump’s pet chihuahua?

Well, judging by today, the evidence is mixed. Certainly, the prime minister has made a strong alliance with Trump his number one foreign policy priority. And perhaps more than any other world leader, Trump gets on famously with the British PM. In that context, his remarks to BBC Breakfast about Iran felt like yet another lovebombing of the White House.

Sitting in his No.10 ‘den’ for a live interview, Johnson bent over backwards to flatter Trump. Asked about the getting no prior warning of the air strike on Qasem Soleimani, he said ”there was no reason for us to be notified” (even though the fall-out immediately put British troops and assets in Iraq at risk).

On the Iran nuclear deal that Trump has so heavily criticised, the PM trotted out the US administration’s line better than Sarah Huckerbee Sanders. He was careful to preface his remarks by saying “from the American perspective”, but then said “it’s a flawed agreement, it expires, plus it was negotiated by President Obama” that “has many faults”.

Clearly on a roll, Johnson added: “Well, if we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it – and let’s replace it with the Trump deal. President Trump is a great deal maker by his own account and many others. Let’s work together to replace the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action] and get the Trump deal instead.”

He undertook a similar wooing operation towards Trump at the UN last September, but went even further back then, saying Obama’s plan was “a bad deal…it had many defects”. Yet within hours, foreign secretary Dominic Raab was saying the UK wanted to “preserve” the Obama deal and No.10 said it was “fully committed” to it.

While Downing Street tried to insist there was “no contradiction” between being committed to a deal and wanting to replace it with something better, it didn’t take Emily Thornberry long to make exactly that charge in the Commons. Even putting aside Thornberry’s attack on “toddler Trump”, she had a point when she said Johnson seemed to be hoping for “some mythical Trump deal”.

What’s really strange about Johnson’s stance, however, is that the UK government still firmly believes in the Obama deal (the Foreign Office worked incredibly hard with fellow Europeans to strike the deal back in 2015), warts and all. While it is far from perfect, no major international agreement is perfect, HMG believes. As our diplomats would say, that’s, er, diplomacy. The UK has a ‘hierarchy’ of concerns about Iran. Stopping it from getting a nuclear bomb is top, and the deal reflects that above all else.

In today triggering the Obama deal’s ‘disputes resolution mechanism’ (in response to Iran restarting its limits on enriched uranium, which was in turn caused by Trump’s sanctions), the UK, Germany and France were keen on stressing this wasn’t about imposing any automatic new sanctions. Instead, it was about proving the deal can still work – and seemed to be about sending a message to Washington as much as Tehran.

The UK knows the Obama deal is the only deal on the table and wants the Americans to explain what their alternative is. The real explanation is in heaping praise on Trump’s negotiating skills, Johnson is trying to get the president back down that diplomatic route, having already urged him to ‘dial down’ the tensions in the region. It appears supportive, but actually puts the onus on the US to come up with a solution. The problem is that after months of attempts at persuasion, a Trump ‘deal’ still remains distant.‌

Still, Johnson is preparing to stand up to Trump over Huawei, it seems. In what felt to me like a carefully planned softening-up exercise ahead of a final decision, MI5’s Sir Andrew Parker went on record yesterday to say he didn’t think allowing the Chinese firm limited access to our 5G network would create a problem for intelligence sharing.

Today, Johnson let slip his own exasperation with Washington. Johnson put it pithily: “The British public deserve to have access to the best possible technology…if people oppose one brand or another then they have to tell us what’s the alternative, right?”

In a nutshell, if we don’t allow Huawei access, Britain faces higher costs and risks associated with the only two other firms (Nokia and SonyEricsson) that can deliver the tech. In an echo of the line on Iran, the UK is challenging the Americans to say what a viable alternative looks like (and right now, there isn’t one).

UK government sources are also withering about US claims overnight that there is some new ‘dossier’ of evidence against Huawei. Our intelligence agencies are fully aware of all that, and still clearly think this is a manageable risk. Johnson knows he’s going to get both barrels from Trump if he goes ahead with Huawei, but it’s looking like we won’t defer this decision for much longer.

If the PM does indeed refuse to join Australia and New Zealand (the only other countries in the world to bow to Trump pressure), he’ll have proved he is not the president’s lapdog after all – and have stood up for our own agencies and officials. Johnson won’t want to embarrass Trump by making his decision ahead of an election-year trip to the White House next month, and may delay his announcement until after all the ‘best buddies’ photocalls and overseas credibility he can lend the president.

It was a young presidential contender back in 2017, a little-known chap called Emmanuel Macron, who taunted Theresa May that Brexit would leave Britain as the ‘vassal state’ of America. Some Trump critics over the Atlantic think that ‘America First’ means he only treats other states as either ‘vassals’ or ‘enemies’. On Iran and on Huawei, we’ll find out this year whether there’s any third way for Johnson.

Quote Of The Day

“It’s just a crime against… it’s a crime against cheese lovers.”

Boris Johnson explains why he can’t do Veganuary

Tuesday Cheat Sheet

Business secretary Andrea Leadsom tweeted the news that the government had stepped in to help rescue regional airline Flybe, after talks with its shareholders.

Boris Johnson said that the government was “working up a plan so people can bung a bob for a Big Ben bong” to mark Brexit at 11pm on January 31. His official spokesman later said “there isn’t a specific government fund” to interrupt Westminster restoration works to allow the bell to toll. Commons Speaker Lindsay Hoyle said it would cost more than £500,000.

Labour started its 48-hour period for the public to sign up as ‘registered supporters’, giving them full voting rights in the party leadership and deputy leadership elections. Applicants must pay a fee of £25.

The PM formally rejected Nicola Sturgeon’s call for Holyrood to be given the power to hold another vote on Scottish independence. Sturgeon said Johnson was “terrified of Scotland’s right to choose”.

Lord Alf Dubs told HuffPost UK he is “worried” that ministers could water down their promise to protect lone child refugees after Brexit.‌

Labour peer Lord Lea was suspended from the party’s group of peers after the standards commissioner found he had harassed two women. He will receive ‘training’ to prevent further misconduct.

What I’m Reading

Warren Says Sanders Told Her A Woman Couldn’t Beat Trump – CNN

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