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Catch-22

Will we have a Christmas election? It certainly doesn’t look like it after Labour appeared to set an impossible bar: asking Boris Johnson to rule out a no-deal Brexit before backing a snap poll.

And that’s not just a no-deal Brexit on January 31, which will be achieved as soon as the EU agrees to extend Article 50 until then, as expected.

‌Jeremy Corbyn appears to have a second condition – the removal of the trapdoor in the prime minister’s withdrawal agreement that means the UK could leave the post-Brexit transition period without a trade deal, which many argue is an effective no deal.

‌Justice Secretary Robert Buckland did this week commit to parliament getting its say on extending the transition period if there was no trade deal to win support for the deal.

‌But it is unlikely Johnson will be able to come up with anything water-tight enough to get Corbyn’s support before the key election vote on Monday night.

Even if the Labour leader appears to be backing an election as long as the conditions are met, in reality he is unlikely to split the party’s MPs in half, with as many as 140 dead set against a snap poll.

‌And the only way to definitively take no deal off the table is by revoking Article 50 or passing a Brexit deal.

‌The situation is further complicated by the EU, which has deferred its decision on granting an Article 50 extension until the UK parliament basically sorts itself out.

‌But with opposition parties unwilling to back a general election until the EU makes its own decision on delay, the entire Brexit process is in something of a Catch-22, as one lobby hack put it at this morning’s briefing.

‌Thoughts are now turning to what could happen once Johnson is denied his election, with Downing Street rowing back from suggestions the government would simply go on strike.

‌Number 10 did however make clear that the PM would shelve all Brexit legislation until MPs agree an election.

‌But that could leave the path clear for a Letwin/Boles/Benn/Cooper-style takeover of the Commons to pass his deal, or even a version of Theresa May’s deal (no, really), or perhaps a second referendum.

‌Maybe Johnson will get what he craves if Emmanuel Macron convinces the EU to offer only a short Brexit delay to mid-late November.

‌Number 10 confirmed it would abandon its call for an election if so, and simply turn back to trying to pass the deal – with MPs having a choice between deal or no deal.

‌But as one insider put it, that would be a “miracle”.

‌No wonder the Today programme’s thought for the day on Friday morning was devoted to comparisons between Brexit and purgatory.

Quote Of The Day

“He is the guy you see, like he is personable, he’s intelligent, he’s witty – he is very normal. You can talk to him about stuff, you know. Some politicians are really hard to talk to. He’s a little bit eccentric, a little bit alternative.”

– Irish PM Leo Varadkar goes on the charm offensive about Boris Johnson.

Friday Cheat Sheet

EU ambassadors have agreed that a Brexit extension is needed, with a diplomat saying they will decide on its length next week. Ambassadors agree the Article 50 deadline should be delayed but Brussels won’t decide the length of the extension now.

A snap general election could happen before the December 12 date named by Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn has suggested. In an interview with ITV’s This Morning, the Labour leader said his party will on Monday give its crucial backing to a quick-fire poll if the prime minister rules out a no-deal Brexit. 

‌Downing Street has played down threats that it would go on effective strike if MPs reject Boris Johnson’s demand for a general election. Briefings from Number 10 on Thursday night said the government would do the “bare minimum” in parliament if opposition parties refuse a snap poll.

‌Women have described how they were forced to turn to sex work to survive after struggling to make ends meet on Universal Credit. An inquiry into “survival sex” by parliament’s work and pensions committee heard the story of one woman who was backed into giving a shop manager oral sex after she was discovered shoplifting food for her family during a long wait for her Universal Credit payment. 

‌A Vietnamese woman is feared to be among 39 migrants found dead in a refrigerated lorry in Essex earlier this week. Though the victims were initially suspected to be Chinese nationals, the family of Pham Tra My, 26, told the BBC they had paid £30,000 for her to be smuggled to Britain but have not been able to contact her since she sent a text on Tuesday night saying she was suffocating. Two more people have been arrested over the deaths.

What I’m Reading 

How I learned the Tories weren’t evil – UnHerd

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