Britain’s damp and windy days can often feel long and, quite literally, painful – and a new study has confirmed this isn’t all in our heads. The weather does play a part in how much pain we feel.

People with long-term health conditions such as arthritis, fibromyalgia, migraine and neuropathic pain are 20% more likely to suffer from pain on days that are damp and windy with low atmospheric pressure, according to new research from the University of Manchester.

Carolyn Gamble, who has a form of arthritis called ankylosing spondylitis and participated in the study, said the results helped her accept that the pain she feels is out of her control: “It is not something we have done, or could have done differently in our own self-management.”

There are 10 million people in the UK with arthritis (or similar conditions), over half of whom experience life-altering pain every day. Researchers believe the findings could lead to the development of a ‘pain forecast’ to help sufferers in the future.

What did the study find?

Funded by charity Versus Arthritis, the study – called ‘Cloudy with a chance of pain’ – ran throughout 2016 and recruited more than 13,000 people from all 124 postcode areas of the UK, from Orkney to the Isles of Scilly. Using a smartphone app, participants recorded daily symptoms while the local weather was determined from location data provided by the smartphone’s GPS.

The analysis looked at data from 2,658 people who provided daily symptoms for around six months. Participants had a range of different health issues, but predominantly arthritis.

The most important factor associated with worsening pain was high relative humidity, the research revealed. Humid days were most likely to be painful, whereas dry days were least likely to be painful.

Low pressure and higher wind speed were also linked to more painful days, although to a lesser extent than humidity.

Despite many people believing pain to be influenced by temperature, there was no association observed when averaged across the population. That said, cold days that were also damp and windy could be more painful. Meanwhile, rainfall was not associated with pain.

Lead author Professor Will Dixon, from the University of Manchester, said: “Weather has been thought to affect symptoms in patients with arthritis since Hippocrates. Around three quarters of people living with arthritis believe their pain is affected by the weather. Yet despite much research examining the existence and nature of this relationship, there remains no scientific consensus.

“We hoped that smartphones would allow us to make greater progress by recruiting many more people, and tracking daily symptoms across seasons.”

How will this study help those with chronic pain?

The results of this study could lead to the development of a pain forecast, Prof. Dixon suggested. “This would allow people who suffer from chronic pain to plan their activities, completing harder tasks on days predicted to have lower levels of pain. 

“The dataset will also provide information to scientists interested in understanding the mechanisms of pain, which could ultimately open the door to new treatments.”

Dr Stephen Simpson, director of research at Versus Arthritis, said supporting effective ways of self-managing pain can make “all the difference” for people with arthritis. “This research will help us understand the bigger picture of the complexity of pain caused by arthritis and how people with the condition can take control of it,” he said.