Food shortages, lorry queues at Dover and farmers being forced to cull livestock – in normal times, anyone serious about being prime minister probably would have ruled out a no-deal Brexit. 

But it won’t have escaped your notice that these are not normal times. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt – the two contenders battling it out to be the next Tory leader – have said crashing out must remain an option. 

But what is the reality? Are they just bluffing to win over Tory members? And would the EU or MPs really let them go through with it anyway? 

We try to unpick whether the UK is really facing a no-deal Brexit when the deadline runs out for talks with the EU in October. 

What has Boris Johnson said? 

The frontrunner has said that he will try to negotiate a new Brexit deal with the EU, but will take the UK out of the bloc “come what may” on October 31 – when the extension to the Article 50 deadline expires – if his plan fails. 

Controversially, the leading Brexiteer has refused to rule out shutting down – or “proroguing” – parliament if the UK subsequently faces crashing out. 

This would stop MPs finding a legal way to block a no-deal but would involve the prime minister asking the Queen to suspend parliament against the will of MPs.

Is he serious? Johnson has tried to quell panic by saying he is not “remotely attracted” to the idea, but, in other interviews, has insisted he has a “do or die” attitude on getting Brexit done. 

His hardline approach has won him the backing of the backbench Eurosceptic group the ERG, most of whom favour no-deal. 

Johnson recently told the Telegraph that he was not bluffing about his willingness to back no-deal. 

But others have pointed out Johnson may be talking up the extreme idea to scare EU leaders into reopening the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May – something they have repeatedly ruled out. 

What has Jeremy Hunt said? 

Little separates Hunt and Johnson’s Brexit plans. The foreign secretary also says changes to the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31 deadline are possible. 

Hunt is prepared to wait longer to secure a deal. If he thinks there is no prospect of a deal, however, then he will take the UK out of the bloc without a deal, albeit with “a heavy heart”. 

The EU has made its view clear …. 

The proposals being trumpeted by both candidates are not likely to fill the EU with confidence that any plan can be advanced. 

Hunt and Johnson are proposing changes to the Withdrawal Agreement and power-holders across the bloc have repeatedly said no to this. 

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier flatly ruled out any renegotiation. Ireland’s deputy prime minister Simon Coveney has said there is no deal without a customs backstop and France’s Europe minister has said that without a “new political line” in the UK or a second referendum, Britain must expect to leave the EU on October 31. 

Both leadership candidates insist this will change once a new prime minister is in place because it is in Europe’s interest to avoid no-deal. But the EU’s reluctance to back an extension to Article 50 earlier this year – France’s Emmanuel Macron was among those against the move – suggests patience with the UK is thinning in Brussels. 

MPs will do all they can to stop no-deal

There is a clear majority in parliament for stopping a no-deal exit. 

In order to swerve the possibility previously, they have wrested control of the parliamentary agenda and have held a series of votes to try and beat a path forward on Brexit. 

A bill put forward by Yvette Cooper earlier this year all but forced Theresa May to seek an extension to Brexit. 

Attempts, spearheaded by former attorney general Dominic Grieve, have also been made to hold a vote that would block Johnson from proroguing parliament. They have not yet succeeded but MPs vow they will find a way to block no-deal. 

Tory rebels have indicated that should Johnson or Hunt try to crash the UK out of the bloc, they will back a Labour no-confidence motion which could bring the government down altogether. 

Former prime minister Sir John Major has also said that if Johnson attempts to prorogue parliament, he will launch a judicial review in the courts. 

But, that doesn’t mean they will succeed

While MPs are not in favour of no-deal, they so far have refused to get behind any kind of Brexit deal either. 

They have rejected the Withdrawal Agreement as negotiated by May, as well as a Norway-style soft Brexit, a Canada-style free trade deal and a customs union. 

This deadlock means it is harder than ever to predict what kind of Brexit the UK will now end up with. 

So, what next? 

A no-deal outcome remains a risk. Unlike Hunt, Johnson has said he will not seek an extension to the Article 50 deadline at Halloween. 

But with the EU and MPs opposed to a no-deal outcome, he may struggle to push through crashing out without triggering a major political or constitutional crisis.

Unless Johnson or Hunt can miraculously outdo May and convince the EU to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement and make changes MPs will support, the likelihood is that the prime minister will opt for a general election in the autumn. 

The EU has always said it would grant an extension if a major electoral event, such as a second referendum or an election, were underway. 

An election would give a new government a fresh mandate on Brexit and, as it stands, all parties appear to be on an election footing. 

But whether this move would significantly change the parliamentary arithmetic remains to be seen. 

And in these strange political times, it is not without the bounds of possibility that either future PM could perform a complete U-turn and back a second referendum.