1. CONFECTION POLITICS
Boris Johnson has got plenty of media coverage overnight for his new Tory leadership campaign pledge. As PM, he would hold a swift review of government ‘sin taxes’ (levies on tobacco, alcohol and sugar), saying they “clobber those who can least afford it”. Trying to crowbar in a reference to a post-Brexit Britain, he adds that leaving the EU on October 31 will prove “a historic opportunity to change the way politics is done in this country – a good way to start would be basing tax policy on clear evidence.”
Johnson argues that on policies like the ‘sugar tax’ the evidence is mixed. But while he can point to some research suggesting sin taxes hit the poorest hardest, there is also a wealth of medical and economic evidence to show they work and are fair. An authoritative study in the BMJ found that taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and soft drinks “offer a particularly effective strategy for reducing chronic disease among the poorest people in society who are disproportionately affected by unhealthy products”.
The sugar tax is a case in point. It forced manufacturers to slash their sugar content in more than half of drinks on offer, but added about 8p to a can of classic Coke. There are plenty of doctors who think the policy is a price worth paying, and with perfect timing a new Cancer Research UK study reveals today that obesity now causes more cases of four common cancers in the UK than smoking. Meanwhile, dentists report record numbers of pre-school children having teeth taken out.
One small subplot on all this is the way Matt Hancock has been thrown under the bus (a big red one?) again. In his press released, Johnson directly attacked the health secretary’s recent Cabinet consultation paper suggesting the extension of new taxes on milkshakes (as revealed by the Sun last week). The Times says it understands Hancock was not made aware of the announcement in advance. By contrast, his rival for the soon-to-be-vacant Chancellor post, Liz Truss, has enthusiastically backed Johnson’s pledge with the hashtag #freetochoose.
Jeremy Hunt, another former health secretary, has yet to hit back at Johnson, although one of his team certainly has. Ex-junior health minister Steve Brine, who introduced the sugar levy, tweeted: “I totally despair at this. Transparent dog whistle politics dressed up as something thinking”. Many will conclude once again that Johnson is not so much a conviction politician as a confection politician, ready to ignore ‘experts’ to manufacture a headline for short-term popularity.
And the fact is that we’ve been here before. I remember a frantic press scrum at the Tory conference in Bournemouth in 2006 when Johnson had to barricade himself inside the press office after he attacked Jamie Oliver’s healthy school meals campaign at a fringe meeting the night before. “If I was in charge I would get rid of Jamie Oliver and tell people to eat what they like,” he had said. “I say let people eat what they like. Why shouldn’t they push pies through the railings?” And yet Johnson also said he would ban sweets from schools and then praised Oliver as ‘a national saint’. It was inconsistent and slapdash but guaranteed media coverage.
Johnson has pledged “not increase any of the so-called ‘sin taxes’, or introduce similar taxes” until his review is completed. As with his attacks on political correctness and health and safety (child car seats, speed humps, all seen as worth of abolition), he is tapping into a US-style culture war that targets both working class Labour voters and middle class Tories, many of whom backed his Vote Leave campaign.
But will he really stop the Treasury from putting up tobacco and alcohol duty? The real risk for his reputation is that his words won’t be matched by action. And as we list HERE, both he and Jeremy Hunt have flip-flopped repeatedly in just a few weeks of this leadership campaign. Johnson has himself slimmed down lately by cutting alcohol and carbs. But he’s still partial to having his cake and eating it.
2. STRONG AND UNSTABLE?
Boris Johnson’s critics certainly think his wish to base policy “on clear evidence” would be novel and welcome when it comes to a no-deal Brexit. And yesterday Philip Hammond, in what looked like a valedictory performance in Treasury Questions in the Commons, let rip. The Chancellor signalled that he is ready to vote with Labour to block a “disruptive” exit from the EU, vowing to do everything he could to stop a £90bn “hit” to the British economy.
Today, the House of Lords will try its bit to get some more facts, with a motion calling for a joint parliamentary committee of MPs and peers to consider and report on the impact of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement on 31 October 2019. The motion has been tabled by Shadow Leader of the Lords, Labour’s Baroness Angela Smith with the support of Liberal Democrat Lords leader Dick Newby, security and intelligence expert David Anderson from the Crossbenches, and the Conservative Lord Patrick Cormack.
However, Johnson’s trip to Northern Ireland yesterday proved just why it’s a mistake to underestimate him. The hustings were in many ways a sideshow, it was his meeting with DUP leader Arlene Foster that mattered most. And he tweeted a picture afterwards with this firm pledge: “If I become PM, under no circumstances will there be a hard border on the island of Ireland, nor will I accept a deal that sees NI taken out of the UK’s customs territory”. Many will see those as incompatible, but it proved just why Johnson put so much effort into wooing Brexiteers in this contest: the ERG and the DUP will determine his future much more than 160,000 party members.
Still, John McDonnell pounced on Hammond’s remarks yesterday. In a briefing to us hacks, the shadow chancellor suggested that Johnson’s political views and private life meant he was too “unstable” to take over in No.10. “I actually think the instability of Boris Johnson himself in terms of – well, in all aspects of his life – the unstable nature of Boris Johnson and his political decision making, anything could happen…I think that’s one of the deepest worries that all of us must have for the future of the country and the economy.” Team Boris hit back hard, saying “Corbyn and his Marxist-loving acolytes are turning to personal attacks because they know a Conservative party led by Boris Johnson would condemn them to the dustbin of history”.
As for Johnson’s record in London, his supporters say it’s proof he can keep taxes down while delivering innovative public services and keeping the Left out of power. But this twitter thread on his failures as Mayor, complete with dripping sarcasm, is already being shared by Labour politicians.
3. PREGNANT PAUSE
Jeremy Corbyn is facing fresh anger within the PLP after a local party activist called for the deselection of pregnant MP Ellie Reeves. Reeves’ thought crime was to sign a letter from deputy leader Tom Watson criticising the readmission to the party of Chris Williamson. PoliticsHome, which had the scoop, reports that Reeves “asked Corbyn’s office to intervene on her behalf, but was turned down”.
Watson this morning tweeted that “a small group of members are trying to bully another pregnant MP out of the Party” (a reference to Luciana Berger), adding the entire shadow cabinet will want to publicly condemn it. Reeves, who is the wife of PLP chairman John Cryer, is unlikely to be reassured by the Labour source who says “any MP who is on parental leave will not undergo reselection processes until they return from leave.”
I’d be surprised if that rule wasn’t amended today to exempt from reselection not just those on parental leave (Reeves isn’t yet) but those who are pregnant. This all reminds me of the time when another new MP, Rosie Duffield, was targeted by activists after she attended the anti-semitism rally in Parliament Square last year. Corbyn was challenged at a PLP meeting about her treatment, but simply said “it would be wrong for me to intervene in the democratic rights of any part of the Labour Party”.
The whole row is certainly a gift for Theresa May should she wish to raise it in PMQs, especially as equalities minister Penny Mordaunt has today unveiled a new ‘roadmap’ to help women get more equality from the cradle to the grave. Then again, Mordaunt has also shown how much more bold she is than May (and both male Tory leadership candidates) on the issue of abortion rights in Northern Ireland. She told the Today programme that “Parliament and government has to act” to counter the “appalling” “paucity of care for women in Northern Ireland”. “Women who are having to give birth to babies decomposing…children who have been victims of sexual assault…this is not right…”
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Watch John McDonnell use Philip Hammond’s final Treasury question time to hand him a farewell present: a different kind of ‘little red book’
4. DYING SHAME
Terminally ill people are facing devastating financial hardship and crippling debt due to an “outdated benefit system” based on “fudged policy”, a new inquiry has found. A damning report by the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Terminal Illness has heavily criticised the divisive “six months to live rule” that prevents potentially thousands of sick and dying people accessing fast-track benefits.
5. MIND YOUR LANGUAGE
Ursula von de Leyen, the German defence minister now tipped to be the next European Commission President, is a fluent English speaker. However, not many Brits are fluent German speakers. And a new British Council survey reveals a possible chilling effect of Brexit on European language learning in UK schools, the BBC reports. It cites fears that the UK will lose native European language speakers as teachers, and picks up on feedback that parents in disadvantaged areas see no point in their children studying foreign languages.
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