1. THE LYIN’ KING?
Back in 2017, Boris Johnson gave a typically tub-thumping Tory party conference speech in which he declared it was “time to let the British Lion roar” on Brexit. Today, he resembles a very different kind of big cat: the cowardly lion from the Wizard of Oz. Having previously said “put ’em up, put em up”, he is accused by leadership rival Jeremy Hunt of running scared of public scrutiny. In the Times, Hunt suggested his opponent want to “slink through the back door” of No 10 by “pathetically” evading questioning. “Don’t be a coward Boris, man up,” he wrote.
On the Today programme, Hunt pointed out that Johnson had challenged him to a TV debate on ITV, only to then discover the televised showdown (like the Sun newspaper debate just beforehand) would take place after the ballot papers had been sent out to party members next month. Tory party members are very, very swift in filling in their ballot papers. One veteran of the 2001 IDS/Clarke run-off tells me “we were gobsmacked” at the rapid rate of return of votes, and the same happened in 2005 with Davis/Cameron too. Any media appearances after those envelopes have been sent back is “a waste of time”, they add.
That’s why Hunt is pushing so hard to get any head-to-head debates he can, rather than the Conservative hustings format where each candidate appears one after the other. Asked this morning if Johnson was trustworthy enough to become PM, Hunt said: “The way to earn that trust is to subject yourself to scrutiny…it is incredibly disrespectful to conservative party members up and down the country to say you are not going to do any head to head debates, any tough media interviews for the next couple of weeks.” Tomorrow, SkyNews will ‘empty chair’ Johnson, and it’s possible the BBC could too. Tory members may get to see a heck of a lot of Hunt in coming days.
What was most telling about the first Tory hustings in Birmingham on Saturday was the way Johnson filibustered, waffled and ducked almost all the questions put to him. It wasn’t just questions about his ‘heated row’ with girlfriend Carrie Symonds that went unanswered, it was questions about policy (no ‘guarantee’ of exit on October 31, no clarity on Heathrow or HS2). Just as with the Q&A at his leadership launch, he couldn’t help resorting to the flip, dismissive dissembling that jars with his self-proclaimed new ‘seriousness’.
It looks like Johnson’s camp will try their best to avoid any one-on-one debates or extended TV interviews in the next fortnight. Leopards don’t change their spots and lions, even cowardly ones, are creatures of habit. Both Tory MPs and Tory members can’t say they don’t know what they are letting themselves in for. Johnson may well continue to duck and dive and avoid questions all the way to No.10. The real problems will start once he gets there. As Theresa May has found out, you can put off the hard choices on Brexit for only so long.
2. SPLITTING UP
Many Tory members are of course more focused on the UK’s relationship with the EU than Johnson’s relationship to his girlfriend. The former foreign secretary has never paraded his family in front of the cameras or invaded his own privacy as other politicians have. His allies think that unless he’s committed a crime, his private life is off limits. Still, his critics think that once he and his partner move into their taxpayer-funded home of No.10, glass-smashing and screaming would no longer be ‘none of our business’.
It’s worth remembering that Trump survived much worse allegations, with even women supporters in his core base (and even swing voters) remaining loyal by either disbelieving the stories of his misconduct or relegating them in importance. And don’t forget that the real reason many Tory MPs and members are supporting Johnson (reluctantly or enthusiastically) is because they think he is a vote-winner. That’s why there’s an increasing feeling among some MPs that he will opt for a general election this autumn.
This morning, Hunt seized on suggestions by minister Tobias Ellwood (to the BBC’s Panorama tonight) that ‘a dozen or so’ Tory MP could back a no confidence motion to stop a no-deal Brexit. “If parliament takes no deal off the table before 31st October, would Boris call a general election? I would not,” he said. Given that the EU has insisted it won’t agree to any extension to the Brexit process without either an election or a second referendum, anti-no-deal Tories may conclude the nuclear option is the only option.
However, there is a real difficulty for Hunt here too. By ruling out a snap election, and ruling in the possibility of a delay to Brexit, he would be left with a state of limbo that may satisfy no one. A snap election under Johnson would be a risk, but at least he would be seen trying to break the impasse. Hunt was asked twice on Today if he was prepared to let the Brexit issue drag on into next year, and twice he ducked answering directly while making clear he was indeed open to that. “Would you prefer a PM who is honest about the fact that it is going to be difficult?” he said.
As for other splits, the Sun reveals discontent in ‘Team Boris’ with older hands like Jake Berry, Nigel Adams and Ben Wallace allegedly unhappy at the new recruits Gavin Williamson and James Wharton. Blame for the backlash over Johnson’s tax cuts policy, heavy-handed whipping and the lack of media scrutiny is swirling around. “And nobody is telling Liz Truss to shut up either,” one MP said. Whoever becomes Johnson’s chief of staff will have a heck of a job.
3. PASS TIMES
Labour has its own troubles on Brexit of course and today Jeremy Corbyn will meet trade union leaders to consult them on how to ‘evolve’ party policy on a second referendum. Yesterday Andrew Gwynne – one of a clutch of north West MPs who are loyal to Corbyn but very sceptical about a new referendum – confirmed the direction of travel.
Crucially, Gwynne told Sky that ‘the time has passed’ for Labour’s own ‘jobs-first’ Brexit plan to get parliamentary approval. “We are not going to get Labour’s Brexit deal presented by PM Johnson or PM Hunt. And so the realisation is that whatever they come back to parliament with between now and October, we have to go back to the people and we have to say, ‘is this really the Brexit that you want?’.”
On the other hand Caroline Flint told Marr that the number of Labour MPs willing to back the government’s Brexit deal “will go up” from the 26 who have already publicly warned against a new referendum. The key question is whether, in any vote of confidence in the government, they would vote for a general election or not. Some Corbyn allies believe any MP who failed to trigger an election would not just lose the whip, they would be expelled from the party.
Let’s see if this week’s shift from Corbyn is just a repeat of his Dublin remarks in the wake of the Euro elections, or if it really is heading towards ‘referendum-and-remain’.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Watch Steve Bannon boast of his direct contacts with Boris Johnson ahead of the first speech he made after resigning from May’s government over Brexit policy.
4. BY-ELECTION BLUES
All this talk about confidence votes means that it’s more important than ever what happens in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. If the Tories lose, the government’s majority will be cut to just two. As the sitting party, the Conservatives choose when to set the date of the by-election and we may find out today if they want a quick contest.
The poll could be the very first real-world test for the new Tory leader. And with the Lib Dems having previously held the seat and the current MP accused of expenses fraud standing again, a Johnson premiership could lose its majority through a series of by-elections. Would his team risk delaying the by-election until after the summer, I wonder? Or even wrapping it into an October general election? Sounds mad, but nothing’s mad these days. The safest bet may be to get it over quickly (a few days after a new leader is chosen) and say it was too soon to class as a verdict on the new PM.
5. CON-VINCE-ING SWITCHERS
The opinion polls have been pretty volatile of late with Labour variously on 19% or 27%, the Tories on 17% or 26% and the Lib Dems on either 16% or 24%. Those are pretty big shifts that would make anyone think twice before entering a general election, normally.
However, Vince Cable sounds like he thinks he’s convinced more former Labour and Tory MPs to defect to his party. He told Westminster Hour last night: “There are quite a lot of Tory MPs, some Labour, who were going to make the jump and didn’t but are now realising that their position is becoming impossible and who might well come to us.” And he added this kicker: “We’re talking to quite a wide group of people, not just the Independent MPs.”
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