1. STARTER FOR TEN
With Boris Johnson’s progress to No.10 now looking unstoppable, the most significant thing about last night’s BBC debate was the glimpse it gave us into what his premiership would look like. And it was exactly how many would expect it to be.
The five-way format did not allow for sustained scrutiny. And according to my stopwatch, Johnson talked for a mere 600 seconds in total. Yet in those 10 telling minutes he packed a heck of a lot of evasion (refusing to answer on a no-deal ‘guarantee’), inconsistency (U-turns on Heathrow and his tax plan) and plain lies (the idea that GATT24 could solve the Irish border issue). His critics inside and outside the Tory party will inevitably say ‘we told you so’.
We also got a glimpse into what Johnson Cabinet meetings would feel like. He repeatedly praised his colleagues, as if the balm would magically dispel their legitimate criticisms of him. At several points, he could be heard off camera saying ‘Quite right!’ and ‘Yes!’, with a Woosterish fervour designed to cheer his team up rather than offer detailed answers. Dollops of cash were promised for things like schools, without explaining how that would fit with tax cuts.
I’ve written my Four Things We Learned about the BBC debate HERE, including the fact that Johnson has a trust problem. Jeremy Hunt had one of the best attack lines last night, suggesting the ex-foreign secretary’s main ‘dream’ was simply to get to No.10, rather than helping the British people to fulfil their own dreams. And Hunt put his finger on the Boris problem on Today when he declared: “The job of prime minister is not about broad brush statements…that’s the easy bit, it’s actually about finely balanced judgements on the basis of the facts in front of you.”
However, when it comes to winning votes, large swaths of the public quite like broad brush strokes and like someone to put a smile on their face. This is exactly why we may end up with a dual premiership with Johnson acting like a salesman and chairman of the board, and Hunt his deputy PM fixing the detail (maybe even as his Brexit negotiator).
His allies think the model worked in London, where Johnson found a chief of staff and various deputies who did the heavy lifting of government, while he got on with winning elections. Being PM is of course very different from being Mayor, but that doesn’t look like stopping Tory MPs or members from hopping onto the Boris bandwagon.
2. THE DROP OUTS
The other thing that may well characterise a Johnson premiership is an ability to whip effectively. Though there has been some pushback at the heavy-handed tactics of ex chief whip Gavin Williamson, his team have shown they can count. And even yesterday amid all the ‘churn’ of votes (some lent their support, others came on board), his numbers man Grant Shapps got his private prediction right. Shapps had set a target of 40% of the vote for the second ballot, and in the end he got 40.3%.
With Raab out of the race, Johnson may have made a cynical calculation that he just doesn’t need to appease the hardliners in the European Research Group (ERG) any more. So far, they’re taking on trust his lines about quitting on October 31, with Iain Duncan Smith last night saying ‘I’m more than happy’. At last night’s ERG meeting, there was definite unease at the SkyNews scoop that Johnson may not after all kill off May’s withdrawal agreement. But Steve Baker said it was “a bit of a fiction that anyone from the ERG is upset with Boris”.
Sajid Javid last night made the clearest pitch to all those 30 Raab votes up for grabs, especially as he was the only person to put his hand up when Emily Maitlis asked who would get Brexit done by October 31. Hunt’s pledge to cut taxes for the lowest paid may well woo some Raab-ites, but many expect them to pile in behind Johnson as the only Leaver left who is not compromised (as Gove is) by the compromise of backing May’s deal.
Rory Stewart meanwhile knows that he or Javid could easily drop out today when the third ballot takes place. He failed to get enough traction last night and in many ways his remarks on tax-cutting will have deterred even ‘moderate’ Tory MPs. Instead, it seems he’s resorting to desperate gaming of the leadership ballot, with George Eustice revealing on Newsnight he had this “bonkers idea” of a “bizarre pact” with Michael Gove. Javid supporter Stephen Crabb revealed he had a plaintive text from Stewart’s team. On Today, Stewart confessed he had texted Raab supporters, claiming “I have some positive responses. I’ve had a couple this morning…” Maybe, just maybe, Stewart needs to spend more time meeting fellow MPs in person (one MP told me he didn’t even return a call) than members of the public.
3. EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION
For all their talk that they want to avoid ‘blue on blue’ action, the Tory leadership contenders have certainly gifted enough soundbites for Labour to replay on a loop in any general election. This morning, Hunt’s lines on Johnson (“I’m not entirely sure what he believes”, there’s a “danger of no trust, no negotiation, no deal”) were a case in point. And on Jeremy Corbyn’s home turf of austerity, Hunt last night made the damning admission that “some of the cuts in social care did go too far”.
Yet for Labour to have a hope of capitalising on the Tory infighting it needs to show its own unity, not least on Brexit. Today the shadow cabinet has its delayed meeting on the topic and there is pressure from many members to win back all those votes lost to Lib Dems and Greens by unequivocally backing a referendum-and-remain policy stance.
Keir Starmer nudged things in this direction last week in a webinar for the party’s policy forum process. And despite rather than because of Tom Watson’s intervention this week, it seems Corbyn is happy to confirm he has ‘evolved’ the policy. As I wrote yesterday, there will be no vote at shadow cabinet and all we will get is Corbyn in coming days simply repeating the line he issued in Dublin after the Euro poll disaster: the deadlock can only be broken by an election or a public vote on any deal approved by parliament.
ITV’s Robert Peston had the only real new intel yesterday, that Corbyn chief of staff Andrew Fisher has written a paper which apparently recommends the referendum-and-remain stance be adopted. Sceptical shadow cabinet ministers I’ve talked to think it’s ‘inevitable’, but also think it’s academic as only a Labour government could deliver any referendum. And some in Corbyn’s team believe there simply isn’t enough time to do anything formal until annual conference in September. Let’s see.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Watch again the Rory Stewart yoga-style head flex.
4. DYING FOR CHANGE
The second day of our HuffPost UK look into welfare for the sick and dying has found that thousands are being denied benefits under a strict government rule that says those with terminal illnesses must have six months or less to live in order to claim.The government is under mounting pressure to scrap the controversial life expectancy rule used to decide whether terminally ill people are fast-tracked for welfare support such as Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments (PIP). Meanwhile, the IFS and Joseph Rowntree Foundation has a damning new study that housing costs and welfare changes mean work is not a reliable route out of poverty.
5. ME-ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Donald Trump last night started his 2020 re-election campaign in the swing state of Florida. All the usual Trump tropes were in play on immigration and fake news and even Hillary Clinton (the crowd actually chanted ‘lock her up’). But the president also had a new tune about “the rise of radical socialism and the destruction of the American dream” – a direct reference to the prominence among Democrats of policies pushed by Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
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