1. FARAGE FAILS
Theresa May is in her Berkshire constituency today, preparing to formally step down as Tory leader. And last night’s Peterborough by-election result, together with the European elections disaster, proves just why she’s going. If the PM had somehow doggedly refused to resign by now, coming third in a traditional Labour-Tory seat would have sealed her fate.
For Nigel Farage, it was a case of ‘close, but no cigar’. Labour’s Lisa Forbes beat the Brexit Party’s Mike Greene by 10,484 votes (31%) to 9,801 (29%) – a majority of just 683. The Tories trailed a distant third with just 21% of the vote, while the Lib Dems quadrupled their support to grab 12%.
For Farage, it confirms just why he was right to bottle it and not stand himself in the seat (just imagine failing to get into the Commons an EIGHTH time). He was right to point out that by-elections depend on data (to identify and target supporters) and his party had very little of it.
But as with his previous moans about losing by-elections because rivals had a better postal vote operation, it just exposes that Farage is not running a political party, he’s the head of a massive pressure group. Add in the lack of any domestic policy and you can see why a general election would be a major problem for him. If the Brexit party can’t win a by-election, how on earth can it cope in a first-past-the-post national election when its resources will be spread thinly?
Labour’s superior local knowledge and focus on austerity, boosted by a huge get-out-the-vote operation, certainly helped mobilise their core vote. A flood of Momentum activists from across the country helped ensure 500 Labour members were knocking on doors on polling day itself. One local activist was in tears yesterday, saying she “couldn’t believe this many people would ever come to Peterborough”.
For the Tories, its collapse in vote share shows how Brexit is tearing their base apart. Some of their supporters flirted with Farage, some stayed at home and some may have switched to Labour on austerity. But many will also see that Remainer moderate Conservatives defected to the Lib Dems. That’s why the Tory leadership contenders have a real difficulty interpreting this result as a clear-cut warning that they need to tack closer to the no-deal nirvana that Farage espouses.
As for Labour, the battle now begins over what Peterborough tells us about the party’s Brexit policy. Some second referendum sceptics in the shadow cabinet will see the result as a vindication of Corbyn’s fence-sitting to date. They will argue that if there had indeed been a single ‘Remain’ candidate put up by the LibDems/CHUK/Greens, they would have taken votes from Labour and enabled an historic Farage victory.
Yet it was telling that shadow transport secretary and Corbyn loyalist Andy McDonald was the MP picked to deliver the leadership’s message on the Today programme. And he said two interesting things. First this: “Any deal that would come through parliament should go back to the people, we should have a second vote”.
But McDonald also said this: “We are looking down the barrel of a no-deal…If that’s the choice we’ve got to go back to the people and say the choice is no-deal or the one that we’ve got now.” That felt like he was backing a referendum with just two options on it: no-deal and Remain. Labour’s ‘jobs-first Brexit’ sounded as broken as May’s ‘compromise Brexit’. There was an important Twitter thread yesterday from radical Leftist Ash Sarkar setting out why Corbyn now has to come off the fence.
Yes, the Peterborough result could panic the Tories into going for Boris Johnson as the best candidate to out-Farage Farage. But in choosing a no-dealer, the Conservatives may well gift Corbyn the second referendum/Reform-and-Remain position so many of his members want. A ‘soft Brexit’ – whether Labour’s or May’s (or Hunt’s or Gove’s) – looks dead. No-deal or no Brexit may well be the choice that looms for all sides this summer and autumn.
2. PRO-ROGUE, ANTI-ROGUE
Thanks to a very useful media briefing by the officers of the Tory backbencher 1922 Committee yesterday, we found out a fascinating new fact. When Theresa May steps down as Tory leader today, she will remain as ‘acting Tory leader’ until her successor is chosen (the law and the Electoral Commission prevent the party having no leader at all). She could have stayed on as leader (like Cameron, IDS, Hague, Major and Thatcher), but her MPs were desperate to get her out that they won’t even let her keep the full title during this leadership race.
There will be a formal exchange of letters between May and the 1922 today, though she obviously stays on as PM until July (we have a handy guide here). At around 5pm, we are expecting the race to officially begin. Candidates will have to submit their eight nominations by Monday and the first round of voting takes place next Thursday.
Today, the Telegraph reports a new poll of 48 marginal seats suggesting Boris Johnson is best placed to win back Brexit Party and UKIP voters (60%), way ahead of Michael Gove (31%) and Sajid Javid (23%). The only drawback is that the polling has been done by CTF partners, the firm of Lynton Crosby who, er, regularly talks to Boris. Purely coincidentally, CTF has also given Johnson £23k in loans and donations.
Boris’s image as a loveable rogue endears him to his supporters. But it’s his competence, plus his divisive politics, that really could become his Achilles heel in the Tory race. Gove supporter Tom Tugendhat told us on our Commons People podcast yesterday that being PM meant making quick, life-and-death decisions on things like hostage rescues. “This is not a game. There is nobody, literally nobody, to second guess you. The decision stops with you.” His words were an obvious warning that Johnson just lacks the ability to make those big judgement calls.
Meanwhile, Dom Raab is still getting it in the neck for flirting with the idea of prorogueing (shutting down, effectively) parliament to run down the clock for a no-deal exit on October 31. Speaker Bercow yesterday warned “parliament will not be evacuated from the centre stage of the decision making on this important matter”. So far, Raab doesn’t sound too perturbed at being compared to an authoritarian monarch.
3. ORF WITH THEIR HEADS?
Of course the real issue with prorogation is that brings the Queen into the political mess, especially as she’s the one in whose name parliament is suspended and the one who has to be consulted on the timing of the State Opening of Parliament for a new session.
And there is a bigger Royal issue for any new PM: subjecting themselves to a swift confidence vote in the Commons. Government sources have made clear that the Queen cannot be expected to formally welcome a new prime minister who has not already won the confidence of the House. But under one rumour swirling around, a new Tory leader would be installed and the Commons swiftly plunged into an early summer recess, meaning it would be September before any confidence vote.
When Labour’s Valerie Vaz raised this yesterday, new Commons Leader Mel Stride ducked the issue of recess dates. But when asked directly by Peter Bone whether the new PM would be in place to face parliament before the recess, Stride said it would all depend, adding “the answer, unfortunately, is no, not necessarily”.
The PM’s spokeswoman later clarified the position: “I fully expect that the house will ensure it is sitting when a new prime minister is appointed.” A Downing Street spokesman added that May would resign when “she says to the Queen that she is stepping aside and believes that someone else can command the confidence of the house”. He had the caveat that an actual confidence vote does not need to take place for May to believe that the new leader has the House behind them. But you can expect Labour to table an immediate vote.
Stride meanwhile wins the new David Gauke-prize for dry wit. On his debut yesterday (yes he replaced Andrea Leadsom only a couple of weeks ago) he said: “It has been a very crowded field, with many runners and riders, but here I am as the new Leader of the House, and also as the new Lord President of the Council, which means that I have become a leader without an election and a lord without having to be elevated to the peerage. For having quietly achieved that during these tumultuous times, I think I should be congratulated.”
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Watch a BBC Question Time audience member school Piers Morgan after he criticised those who change their minds.
4. LEGACY TUSSLE
Theresa May’s attempt to find herself a legacy is being hotly challenged by Philip Hammond and the FT has another instalment in the Chancellor’s rearguard action. It says she wants to use her remaining time in power tackling “burning injustices” in society, with an announcement every week, including a dramatic increase in education spending. Hammond is said to be worried about the cost of her promises, which could top more than £10bn.
5. COSTLY BUSINESS
The National Audit Office has revealead that preparing for Brexit has cost the UK government £97m in consultancy fees. The cash has been spent on hiring external experts because government departments lack the staff and skills needed, the watchdog said. Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that the government official in charge of delivering “frictionless” Brexit border arrangements, including emergency plans for Dover and Ireland in the event of no-deal, has quit her job.
COMMONS PEOPLE
Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tom Tugendhat joined us for our Commons People podcast this week. Hear us chat through the leadership race (he’s a Gove backer), the Trump visit and climate change. We also discover Tom had a fondness for a drug Theresa May once banned in the UK: he chewed khat while learning Arabic in Yemen. Click HERE to listen on Android/Audioboom and below for iTunes.
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