1. WANTED: DEAD OR ALIVE
The Cabinet meets this morning to discuss Theresa May’s ‘bold, new’ offer to get her Brexit deal through Parliament a fourth time. And although the Labour-Tory talks are dead, some of the items on their agenda are not. We already have a zombie government and a zombie Parliament, so it’s fitting that plans believed buried in the secretive cross-party negotiations are now coming back from the grave.
After a meeting between the PM and key ministers (one described it to me as a ‘mini-Cabinet’) yesterday, a new form of words on a temporary customs ‘bridge’ to the next general election is expected to be floated today for inclusion in the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB). This was something Corbyn’s negotiating team rejected, but the calculation is that it could persuade a serious number of Labour backbenchers to get on board.
As ever, whenever May tilts towards one group of MPs, she risks losing others. And some Brexiteers in Cabinet like Liam Fox, Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom have already had to swallow some big compromises. This morning, Leadsom was sent on the airwaves to put the government’s case. Yet when asked on the Today programme if she would herself vote for the bill if it included a fresh customs shift, she hinted she’d rather quit: “I will want to see that it delivers Brexit.” In normal times, a Cabinet minister pressuring the PM in public would be extraordinary. Now, it’s a fact of political life.
David Davis, already suffering from severe buyer’s remorse after backing May’s deal at her third attempt, said yesterday: “This is not a great new offer; it’s a great new concession [to Labour]…if we pass that act, it opens things up so that the successor to the prime minister will have their hands tied.” And that’s even before he’s actually seen the thing. As I said yesterday, the idea of committing to future EU workers’ rights is already producing a backlash among some Tories.
The process, as well as the substance, will be discussed today too. Some ministers still think ‘definitive’ votes could somehow occur during the passage of the WAB. But Labour MPs backing a public vote last night rejected the plea from Matt Hancock and Fox to just support the bill at second reading in order to amend it later. As Peter Kyle told me, if a ‘confirmatory ballot’ is not ‘attached’ the the face of the bill, it “hasn’t a hope in hell”.
Emily Thornberry told the Today programme that May and her Withdrawal bill were both doomed: “It’s almost as though she needs to have a dignified way of leaving. It’s almost like she’s setting up her own political version of the last rites.” Let’s see who’ll act as the priest.
2. PHIL YER BOOTS
Philip Hammond knows his Chancellorship will almost certainly end with a new leader, and he’s clearly decided the mission of his remaining time in government is to stop a no-deal exit. When pre-briefed extracts of his CBI speech landed last night, they felt like a pre-emptive strike at today’s Cabinet discussion on whether to spend more cash on no-deal prep. “All the preparation in the world will not avoid the consequences of no deal,” was a broadside at those (including Brexit secretary Steve Barclay) who want more spending on contingency plans.
But, as we report, what was even more obvious was that this was Hammond sticking the boot into no-deal leadership candidates like Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. “There is a real risk of a new Prime Minister abandoning the search for a deal, and shifting towards seeking a damaging no-deal exit as a matter of policy,” he will tell the City tonight. This would be an attempt to ‘hijack’ the 2016 referendum and ‘knowingly inflect damage’ to the economy. Strong stuff indeed. In response, allies of Boris point out he has always been very clear that the UK can and will get a deal, but no-deal shouldn’t be taken off the table in negotiations with Brussels.
Yet just as May risks losing some MPs whenever she reaches out to others, so too does Boris. Nigel Farage yesterday pointed out Johnson had actually voted for May’s deal (Raab too lost his unique selling point by backing it). Despite his Vote Leave role, several Brexiteer backbenchers just don’t trust him. Some think he’ll ask for a further extension from Brussels. Will Bojo do a ‘Nixon in China’ and surprise people with a deal proposal that can unite his party?
At the One Nation Caucus in the Commons last night, ex-minister Richard Benyon told me: “I bet every leadership candidate from whatever part of the Conservative spectrum will espouse the words ‘One Nation’. Our job is to make sure they mean it.” But Boris’s liberal hinterland even has the power to appeal to some of these ‘moderate’ Tories. It was notable the way several of those present (apart from Margot James) refused to explicitly attack no-dealers. Nick Watt went much further on Newnsight, revealing some One Nation members could endorse Johnson. Soon afterwards, Johnson himself tweeted support for the One Nation mini-manifesto.
There are clearly some Boris fans who are determined to get him on the ballot of any leadership race. Under current rules, MPs pick two contenders to put to party members. Now, PolHome and the Daily Record report that the executive of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers and the party’s ruling board are to consider calls to double that number to four. The Sun says Boris even has legal advice supporting the idea. With a huge field of runners (Penny Mordaunt yesterday attacked Jeremy Corbyn repeatedly), will the Tories have a Labour-style contest to give members more choice?
3. NO HEZZATATION
It’s not unthinkable that Tories like Nicholas Soames and Michael Heseltine could rally round a Johnson leadership, if he made clear no-deal was not his strategy. After all, in social background as well as on social policy, they’re close to the Johnsonian worldview. Yet Hezza himself yesterday blotted his Tory copybook by explicitly saying he would vote for Lib Dem Bill Newton Dunn in the Euro elections.
Heseltine can’t have been that surprised to have the Tory whip suspended, but that didn’t stop Soames from telling Channel 4 News his suspension was a ‘stupid, bovine thing to do’. However, Jonathan Isaby at BrexitCentral reports that Tory HQ has decided not to actually suspend him as a party member. The reason? It doesn’t want to suspend members who ‘lend’ their support to Farage’s Brexit Party. Actively campaigning for a rival party is the line that can’t be crossed, apparently.
Speaking of whom, Paul Crowther, 32, has been charged with common assault and criminal damage after Farage had a milkshake thrown at him in Newcastle, Northumbria Police said this morning. The ex-UKIP leader has a big rally in London tonight so all those hacks who couldn’t brave venturing to the north and midlands can see for themselves the Farage effect.
Meanwhile, as I tweeted last night, Channel 4 News has been banned from attending all future Brexit Party events. The programme was told this Trump-style media blacklisting stemmed from an incident involving access to a Leave Means Leave rally 6 weeks ago. But it wasn’t actually informed of the ban until after it aired its report last Thursday on Farage being bankrolled by Arron Banks to the tune of £450,000.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Jess Phillips is calling for protest exclusion zones around schools as activists target a headteacher who backs LGBT equality lessons. Watch Phillips take on this activist yesterday.
4. THE BREAK UP
It’s certainly true that No.10 is very worried about the break up of the UK under any no-deal Brexit. But Labour too is worried about the electoral boost the Euros will give to not just the SNP but to Plaid Cymru. A new YouGov/ITV poll in Wales has put Plaid Cymru ahead of Labour for the first time. The Brexit Party was first on 36%, followed by Plaid on 19% and Labour falling 15 points in a month to 15%.
5. STEEL YOURSELF
Expect more Brexit-related rows as British Steel in Scunthorpe today tries one last time to avoid collapse. SkyNews reports the government is considering asking the official receiver to oversee an insolvency process in a move that would mean that Whitehall becomes more involved. The firm has lowered its request for an emergency loan from £75m to £30m. Will that be enough? Expect a possible urgent question in the Commons.
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