Far-right activist Tommy Robinson could be gifted a shock victory in the European elections due to Brexit-fatigued voters staying at home, anti-racism campaigners have warned. 

Hope Not Hate (HNH) believes Robinson – whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – has a base in the North West that will deliver a “rock solid” 125,000 votes in the May 23 poll, regardless of how the campaign unfolds. 

But while Yaxley-Lennon’s support is limited to a “small and very dedicated following”, HNH fears low voter turnout could see him reach the last MEP slot “by default” – with just 8.9% of the vote (around 120,000 out of a possible five million). 

It comes as local political campaigners predict turnout could drop as low as 20%, with the governing Conservative Party effectively boycotting the race by not even publishing a manifesto and Labour refusing to take the pro-remain stance its metropolitan voters crave. 

So worried is the campaign group, it is pumping five figure sums into targeted Facebook ads and direct mail shots urging voters to cast their ballot in favour of any mainstream party. 

Over the remaining two weekends of the campaign, HNH will also step up a street campaign, with activists at more than 40 separate events. An eve-of-poll mail will be sent to some 220,000 households with the organisation crowdfunding to reach a further 180,000. 

The former English Defence League leader is standing as an independent in the region, claiming to fight what he calls the “Islamification of Britain”.

He has been banned on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter for breaching hate speech rules and women’s charities have rejected his offer to donate any MEP salary he may potentially earn to their cause. 

The organisation says a poll it commissioned shows 9% of people in the region have a ‘favourable or very favourable’ view of Yaxley-Lennon. 

“Low turnout is arguably the greatest threat in this election,” said one North West-based HNH activist, who asked not to be named. “Our activists are not going into communities to try and convince Stephen Yaxley-Lennon supporters that they are wrong, we are saying to voters: go out and put your cross in the box for any mainstream party. 

“You talk to people and they are just broken by politics.

“Brexit is overshadowing everything and getting people out to vote for a position they don’t understand or even disagree with simply in order to keep the extremists out is very difficult, but people need to understand how important it is to just vote.” 

The far right has historically had strongholds in the North West, including in Lancashire’s Burnley, where the BNP once had a contingent of councillors, and in Cumbria’s Workington. 

Several of Yaxley-Lennon’s rallies have also resulted in low level disturbances, according to reports on social media. 

Before 2014, former BNP leader Nick Griffin represented the region as an MEP. 

Yaxley-Lennon is thought to have pockets of support in Bolton, Bury, Birkenhead, Blackburn, Wigan, Wythenshawe – where he kicked off his campaigned and which was once home to the largest council estate in Europe – Burnley and Workington.  

His campaign has seen him repeatedly rejected by voters on the street, with the 36-year-old twice having a milkshake thrown over him. 

It comes as Labour and the Conservatives have left voters frustrated at a lack of progress or clarity on Brexit as Westminster remains deadlocked. 

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, meanwhile, is expected to win.

Alan Quinn, a Labour campaigner in Prestwich, said Yaxley-Lennon was “an irrelevance” on the doorstep in his area, but acknowledged the online Yaxley-Lennon following was huge.

“I was with some of my Muslim constituents on Friday and they are all very worried. Yaxley-Lennon has turned up here twice,” he said. 

“We need people to go out and vote but they are just so cheesed off with politics. There is obviously a risk that Yaxley-Lennon will get in by default.” 

Quinn also had a grim prediction for turnout. 

“The far-right will feel this is their chance. With both of the main parties this unpopular, they will feel that this is their time,” he said. 

“Based on the campaigning I’ve done, I think 80% of people won’t vote. I think this will be the lowest turnout we have ever seen. If the turnout is 25% I will be amazed.”  

Another Labour campaigner, who had been canvassing in Bolton, said support for party in the region was collapsing, which HNH also fear could offer Lennon a glimmer of hope.

She said: “It is fucking murder. People tell me all the time ‘I am a Labour voter but I will not vote for Corbyn’. 

“We have lost the working class vote.” 

The HNH campaigner said “it would mean everything” to Lennon’s supporters to see him elected. 

“They are utterly convinced he is going to get in,” he said. “There is real fear and concern in communities that this election will leave Yaxley-Lennon and his supporters feeling empowered. I can’t begin to explain how awful it would be for me, as a person, for my friends and my neighbours to have this person represent us in the European Parliament.”