1. TOTAL RECALL
This has been a truly weird week in Westminster, with all the political action taking place away from a thinly-attended Commons with little on its formal agenda. Today, we may get a fittingly weird PMQs too, with Labour’s splinter problem expected to make Jeremy Corbyn the focus of attention more than Theresa May. The spectacle of The Independent Group of MPs (now eight-strong after Joan Ryan’s decision) sitting apart from their colleagues is set to grab the limelight, with all eyes on May and Corbyn’s responses.
And Corbyn’s response has been telling. Whereas John McDonnell tried the emollient approach yesterday, the Labour leader has appeared more resolute in his refusal to engage with the defectors. And this morning, the leadership has gone on the offensive, putting out a new plan to force all MPs who quit their party to be subject to a ‘recall’ by-election, if 10% of constituents demand one.
There will be many loyalists in all parties, not just Labour, who support the idea of ‘defector recall’. But suggesting voters vote for parties rather than individuals makes life difficult for maverick MPs (and Chuka Umunna has already this morning pointed to a Corbyn tweet from 2010 where he told a worried constituent ‘u vote 4 ur MP rather than a party/leader’). Of course, Tony Blair had no problem with ex-Tories like Alan Howarth and Shaun Woodward not fighting by-elections, preferring to secure them safe Labour seats at the following election. Defections still happen occasionally at councillor level, but the days when a Tory MP would be actively welcomed into Corbyn’s Labour party may be over.
There is a practical problem with by-elections too: their sheer cost. The average race can swallow up £20,000 and in London it’s even higher. Labour spent around £45k, I’m told, on the Lewisham East by-election (even after scrimping). Given its tight finances, the bill for seven by-elections, on top of those for Newport West and maybe Peterborough, would be so high that some serious fundraising may be needed.
Meanwhile, Enfield North MP Ryan’s departure (an excellent exclusive by the Times) highlights again Labour’s failure to draw a line under the anti-semitism row. I see she will remain chair of Labour Friends of Israel, which has said it will work “both within the Labour party and with like-minded, independent MPs on the left and centre left”. And in another reminder of the divisions on this issue, someone on the committee of Young Labour tweeted ‘Joan Ryan gone, Palestine Lives’, a line condemned by its Jewish chair Miriam Mirwitch. To cap it all, Labour MP Ruth George was forced to apologise for suggesting The Independent Group received ‘possible’ funding from Israel. Today’s Gordon Brown’s birthday, I wonder whether he will use the occasion to speak out on the state of his party?
2. BRIDE AND PREJUDICE
The decision by Sajid Javid to strip ‘Jihadi Bride’ Shamima Begum of her British citizenship is sure to spark a protracted legal battle. The Home Secretary and his Home Office lawyers are relying on the fact that Begum is entitled to Bangladeshi citizenship (via her parents) to allow him to avoid international obligations not to leave any citizen stateless. But plenty of lawyers have declared that her potential Bangladeshi citizenship is not actual citizenship and therefore Javid has embarked on a legally dubious move. On the Today programme, former terrorism legislation reviewer David Anderson pointed out the stripping of citizenship was normally only used against “serious terrorists” or “serious criminals” and the case against Begum was unclear.
Of course, like Theresa May before him, Javid is calculating not just the legal but the political implications of his actions. Even if he fails in the courts, he may cynically have seen this as a way to message he was ‘tough’ on Islamist extremism. Unsurprisingly, many see this as a naked attempt to ingratiate himself with the Tory grassroots and bolster his leadership credentials. Diane Abbott this morning came out strongly to condemn the decision, saying: “It is not just a breach of international human rights law but is a failure to meet our security obligations to the international community. Potential citizenship rights elsewhere are entirely irrelevant.” The SNP’s Joanna Cherry tells HuffPost Javid looks “more concerned with playing to the gallery and furthering his leadership ambitions than with due process”.
Lots of papers lap up Javid’s decision, but the Speccie’s James Forsyth disagrees, saying it should be a ‘matter of national honour’ for the UK to see justice done to one of its citizens. words will be probably welcomed by the political sage of our age, EastEnders actor Danny Dyer. Dyer told ITV the real issue was how a 15-year-old ended up thinking going to join IS in Syria was a good idea. When Alan Partridge tribute act Richard Madeley told him Begum would not have gone to Syria without the internet, Dyer replied: “We’ve all got the internet, Rich. Are you thinking of going to Syria? Seriously.”
3. SHEIKH HANDS ON IT?
Those Labour MPs who have quit the party in recent days have been wary of explicitly welcoming Tory colleagues to join them. Joan Ryan simply said on Radio 4 today that “I hope that all like minded MPs from whatever party will want to join this group”, knowing that uttering the word ‘Conservative’ risks tarnishing the breakaway as ‘red Tories’. And Theresa May knows she has her own problems with her Remainer MPs thinking of defecting to The Independent Group.
As the PM, her Brexit Secretary and Attorney General head off to Brussels this afternoon, it looks like she’s desperate to keep her Remainer ministers on board as much as the backbench Brexiteer European Research Group. The Telegraph and Bloomberg report May hopes to stage the ‘second meaningful vote’ early next week, rather than sometime in March as some feared. That would depend entirely on whether the EU can sign off on a revised backstop plan, but the chatter continues that the EU-Arab summit in Egypt this weekend could be the place May’s plan gets approved by the 27. Others think time is too short.
Staging a vote early next week would help May avoid all the problems posed by the Cooper plan to force her hand into a delay to Brexit. It could avoid possible ministerial resignations too, plus that threat of MPs defecting. Sir John Major warned yesterday that his own party risked veering off to the extreme as much as Corbyn’s. The ex-PM hinted former UKIP members were doing to the Tories what former Militant members were doing to Labour, with many now bolstering the ERG.
After meeting the PM last night, ERG deputy chair Steve Baker suggested the ‘Malthouse Compromise’ plan was still alive, even though many suspect it will now be part of a fudge of the ‘political declaration’ rather than the withdrawal agreement itself. He told Newsnight: “I’m hopeful that as the conversation moves forward with the EU and with the UK, that we might get to a position where we can vote for the Withdrawal Agreement. But it’s a very big journey from here to there.” Let’s see how big in coming days. Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice will be key.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Watch this toddler bust some moves to Beyonce’s Crazy in Love. If it doesn’t put a smile on your face, I give up.
4. TARIFF TIFF
The ongoing row over zero tariffs in a no-deal Brexit proves that the Cabinet doesn’t always split neatly along Remainer/Leaver lines. Liam Fox (whose backing for the zero option we revealed recently) has been joined by Philip Hammond, David Gauke and Matt Hancock, while those who want opt-outs for key industries like agriculture and ceramics include Michael Gove and Greg Clark, the Times reports. The PM had been due to chair a Cabinet sub-committee to sort it today, the Sun says. It’s now looking like Monday. A further reminder this no-deals stuff is getting real.
5. SO SUE ME
California and 15 other US states have formed a coalition to sue Donald Trump over his decision to declare a national emergency to fund his long-vaunted US-Mexico border wall. What’s been fascinating is the way Trump was goaded into declaring his state of emergency by conservative commentators, with Ann Coulter saying his was the ‘biggest wimp’ ever to serve as President. If you think it’s all about cynically boosting his base by creating a fake sense of crisis over immigration, you’d be right.
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