1. REPEL ALL BORDERS
PMQs becomes deputy PMQs today, with David Lidington and Emily Thornberry set to exchange well-aimed barbs. Theresa May continues her visit to Northern Ireland, meeting local political parties in a bid to show that she really is even handed on all matters relating to the province. That’s despite, er, her entire political future being dependent on the DUP.
May’s performance in Belfast yesterday was a fascinating example of the strengths and weaknesses of her Brexit position. She knows Brexiteers fear any delay to Brexit and Remainers fear a no-deal, so she has time pressure on her side. She also knows her critics have yet to come up with a workable alternative to her ‘backstop’ plan. But she’s also acutely aware that she relies on the DUP, Labour Leave MPs and large chunks of the backbench European Research Group (ERG) to get any deal approved.
The most interesting scripted line in May’s speech was her clear warning that the ‘hi-tech’ solutions were not yet ready, and may never be acceptable locally. “While I have said that technology could play a part, and that we will look at alternative arrangements, these must be ones that can be made to work for the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.” That was a signal that any form of ‘surveillance’ or tracking of goods risks fresh trouble. Which is why the Sun’s exclusive on a new Fujitsu plan for a ‘drive-through border’ was also swiftly shot down. The Telegraph’s Peter Foster says Ulster businesses told May they want to explain these realities to the ‘Malthouse’ group pushing tech alternatives.
In the Q&A, May also all-but-confirmed (after being accused of ‘shafting’ local business) that she still wanted a backstop, though its current form was unacceptable. That in turn sparked a flurry of ERG disquiet, but note that the DUP didn’t kick off about it. The growing perception in Whitehall is that a time limit, set out in a ‘legally binding’ explainer to the withdrawal agreement, is May’s preferred plan now. As ever, the question is whether the precise wording of that will be acceptable to the DUP and most Tory Brexiteers. If the Attorney General gives them cover, that may be enough.
2. BREXIT BLINKMANSHIP
The other huge question is whether the EU will blink and agree a time limit, just to get the damned deal done. The Times’ Berlin correspondent reports that Angela Merkel wants at least the option of a future hi-tech customs solution to provide a way out of the impasse. Yet it also reports that Merkel thinks the chances of a time limit are ‘close to zero’. That’s a huge problem for May and the DUP.
Irish PM Leo Varadkar yesterday attacked ‘unreasonable expectations’ that the backstop could be changed. He’s firm that an insurance policy ceases to have effect if it is time-limited. Yet there is growing evidence that Germany will bring huge pressure to bear on Dublin to make concessions or face border controls in a no-deal scenario. A fascinating piece in Der Spiegel quotes German MEP Elmar Brok saying that if the Irish do not protect the EU’s external border, “we would have to set up the customs border with Ireland.” “If we destroy the single market, the EU is finished.” Leavers point out EU solidarity isn’t perhaps as strong as some think. No wonder there’s a whisper that May could travel to Berlin later this week.
Meanwhile, Liam Fox is determined not to blink on his own insistence that the UK has to prepare properly for no-deal. HuffPost revealed exclusivelyyesterday that he had told business people he planned to amend the Trade Bill to give executive powers to set zero tariffs on imports. The reaction has been swift, with the ceramics industry and farmers warning they would be decimated. Trade unions and Labour all piled in too. Officially, this is just an ‘option’, but let’s see how the rest of the week pans out.
3. LABOUR REBOOTS
Two big speeches from Labour frontbenchers today, with Tom Watson and Emily Thornberry setting out how they would bring a new approach to digital regulation and to foreign policy respectively. With online protection a hot political issue, Watson is calling for a new regulator with the power to break up social media giants who get hold of big datasets. The ‘i’ reportsthat ministers are looking at reclassifying tech firms as publishers, with all the duties that accompany that (long a demand from newspapers and others). “If they choose to go down road of badging social media firms as publishers, we will definitely look at it,” Watson said.
Emily Thornberry has warmed up for her PMQs with a speech setting out her five principles of a new ‘values’ led Labour foreign policy. It has shades of Robin Cook’s ‘ethical’ approach all those years ago, and some of the problems remain. Thornberry says Labour values will never again be sacrificed on the altar of commercial interests (arms sales to Saudi), yet she wants to stress that change will take time. There’s lots to unpick and she’s sure to be asked about Corbyn’s stance on ‘no foreign interference’ in Venezuela.
As for Corbyn’s views on the ‘frankenstein’ European ‘empire’ (as revealed by website RedRoar), Watson stressed to Radio 4 that Corbyn was then a backbencher ‘shaking the tree’. “His views now are that of the shadow cabinet and Labour conference”. Watson added that the Brexit policy was to push Labour’s plan in Parliament, push for a general election and then “either explore other options or have a people’s vote”. That word ‘either/or’ formulation may have been a slip of the tongue, or an admission that a second referendum really isn’t the end-point of Labour’s sequencing. Meanwhile, the Mirror reports estimates that Labour’s membership has dropped to 512,00, down 10% from its peak in 2017.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
Donald Trump’s State of the Union lasted 82 minutes, delivering 5,200 words and 29 sub-topics. There were plenty of crazy moments but watch him say if he were not President the US would be at war with North Korea. That Hillary, he can’t get her out of his mind.
4. THE STABLE DOOR
Our Graeme Demianyk has pushed hard on the issue of fire doors post-Grenfell. Today he reports that a plan to replace thousands of fire doors found to be defective in the aftermath of the disaster has yet to materialise – months after it was promised by the government.
5. SECOND SERVICE
The Interserve issue is creeping back on the agenda. Some 45,000 workers are employed by the contracting giant but there are fears of another Carillion-style collapse as its market value has plunged. The FT reports it now has a market value of £17m, compared with £500m two years ago, but has avoided a disaster with a brutal financial restructuring. The Cabinet Office have been very concerned, but it looks like private firms are being forced to accept they need to take more risk.
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