1. FORTNIGHT GAMEPLAY
It’s potentially another huge day in Westminster. But Theresa May is desperately hoping it won’t be as huge as her critics think, at least on the vexed issue of stopping a no-deal Brexit. When she gets up at the despatch box to make her closing speech around 6.45pm, the PM will plead with MPs (and her ministers) to give her two more weeks to get a revised UK-EU plan sorted. Let’s kick that can just a little bit more down the road, May will effectively say. And firmly in her sights will be her old foe (and former Home Office shadow) Yvette Cooper, whose crucial amendment would force the government to delay Exit Day if no agreement can be found.
May’s most important message at the packed meeting of Tory MPs last night, apart from her announcing she will whip for the Brady amendment (see below), was indeed that she had a new date for Parliament to focus its mind on: February 13. Some MPs came away thinking this was the date of the ‘second meaningful vote’ on Brexit. But a No.10 source clarified for me what May really meant was that if she hadn’t brought back that vote by Feb 13 should would make a statement and table an amendable motion ‘on where we are’.
A few MPs felt the vote would be on the following day, instantly prompting thoughts of a ‘Valentine’s Day Massacre’ headline if May failed again to get a majority. Yet it seems Dominic Grieve has been briefing that in fact May would have a further seven sitting Commons days to delay the actual vote, leaving us with February 25 as the actual, final, final chance for MPs to stop no-deal. That is simply too late for the 40-strong group of resignation-poised ministers who are terrified by the prospect of ‘crashing out’ of the EU without any agreement with Brussels. Business minister Richard Harrington the Today programme he wanted an ‘irrevocable undertaking’ from the PM tonight that the deadline would be ‘two weeks, and that’s it’.
As it happens, the Cooper-Boles amendment sets February 26 as the final date by which a deal has to be reached. If none is reached, Brexit will be delayed (probably by three months). But will the amendment pass today? Well, it will be tight. Labour’s chief whip told the PLP he thought the party would be encouraging colleagues to back it, but a final decision will be taken by the Shadow Cabinet this morning. Some Labour MPs will vote against, though maybe not enough to kill it, and several will abstain. Ruth Smeeth told Radio 4 she “can’t support” a nine-month extension to Article 50, which isn’t the same as voting against.
Tory Brexiteers actively loathe the Cooper-Boles amendment and one of their policy wonk heroes, Shanker Singham, blogs for us that it would massively boost Brussels’ negotiating hand. And yet, although No.10 is whipping against the amendment, one can argue that it actually helps May by focusing hardline Brexiteers’ minds that they are in danger of losing Brexit itself. Others think the real problem with Cooper’s plan is it is all about process not about substance. Or as Smeeth put it pithily, it “just gives the Prime Minister more time to do nothing”. That’s why the next fortnight really matters more than today. If there’s no real deal done by mid-February, senior and junior pro-EU ministers may well assert themselves and say the game is up, let’s go for a customs union with Labour backing. Then, all hell really would break loose in the Tory party.
2. KNIGHT RIDERS
So, will Sir Graham Brady prove to be the PM’s knight in shining armour, riding to her rescue? The chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee was delighted last night when May announced she would whip the party to back his amendment to replace the Northern Irish ‘backstop’ with ‘alternative arrangements’. And within minutes of last night’s packed, all-MP meeting in Portcullis House, Sir Mike Penning marched out to go down to the table office to sign Brady’s plan. More Brexiteer knights of the realm have piled in overnight (Sir Des Swayne, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Sir Edward Leigh, Sir John Hayes). Sir Michael Fallon popped up on Today to add his support too. Liam Fox was on the airwaves this morning, confirming that big shift in No.10. “Are we willing to reopen the withdrawal agreement? The answer is yes,” he told SkyNews. Don’t forget this a big shift, only a few weeks ago May was ruling it out.
We will find out around 1pm just whether Speaker Bercow has selected the Brady amendment for vote tonight. There are lots more names on the Order Paper backing it this morning, including two Labour (Jim Fitzpatrick, John Mann) and one independent (Frank Field). But there was not a single DUP name. It’s still possible that the Speaker may decide it lacks sufficient cross-party support (the fact it is too late and is basically a covert government amendment may be factors too). If so, expect an even bigger uproar than ever from Tory MPs who think Bercow is biased against them.
But what was missing most of all of course from the list of signatories was any senior European Research Group member. Minutes before May’s big meeting, Jacob Rees-Mogg told us waiting hacks that the ERG was not minded to back Brady, adding it was being ‘over-egged’ and was too vaguely worded to be meaningful. Others like Sir Bernard Jenkin, Sir Bill Cash, Mark Francois and Steve Baker seemed similarly unimpressed. But some ERG members were willing to be persuaded, including Anne-Marie Trevelyan and Peter Bone. That split in the ERG is encouraging for No.10, but even if only 15 of its hardliners decide not to back Brady, his amendment will be in real trouble (Tory Remainers don’t like it, independent unionist Lady Hermon wants a backstop, Labour Leavers are wary of backing it). It’s going to be close.
3. PLAN C CHANGE
Late last night it became clearer exactly why Rees-Mogg was so sanguine about opposing the Brady plan. He and others have been conducting secret talks with government ministers about a Plan C for Brexit (they call it Plan A, plus Plan B, but it’s really a whole new ballgame). The two-step proposal is for the Withdrawal Agreement text to be amended with a new ‘backstop’, and then for a ‘basic transition agreement’ to allow an EU-UK trade deal to be done by December 2021. It feels very much like a ‘managed no-deal’, bare-bones offer to get Eurosceptic backing.
It’s no surprise that Brexiteer minister Kit Malthouse has been trying to broker the plan (it was dubbed ‘The Malthouse Compromise’ last night, which sounds like a really bad John Grisham thriller). What’s really surprising is that Remainers like Nicky Morgan have been fully involved, and Remainer ministers like Stephen Hammond and Robert Buckland. The plan squeaked on to the Telegraph’s front page, but it was swiftly leaked to a few lobby hacks (yours truly included), along with the Whatsapp messages of support among Tory MPs. Meanwhile, the Telegraph’s Steve Swinford reported that May’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell had told Boris Johnson No.10 planned a change to the withdrawal agreement: ‘It won’t be a letter, it won’t be a codicil, it will be actual change to the treaty’.
Of course given Brussels’ steadfast line in refusing to reopen the withdrawal agreement, this all sounds like fantasy politics. Still, it’s conceivable that there will be some movement from the EU27 if no-deal looms larger. The problem is again one of time. To get all this sorted in time for March 29 seems frankly bananas. So far, No.10 has been coy in commenting. So May’s words at the despatch box will be pored over even more keenly tonight. This morning’s Cabinet gives ministers a chance to ask the PM what the hell is actually going on with these secret talks – and unpicking an agreement the EU says can’t be unpicked.
BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR…
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4. ABSTAIN ON YOUR CHARACTER
Labour got into a real pickle yesterday over its whipping of the second reading of the Immigration Bill. The original three-liner was to abstain, changed to a one-liner to abstain and then finally to a one-liner to vote against. The last instruction came so late (7pm) that many Labour MPs simply weren’t around when the 10pm vote occurred. The government breezed home with a majority of 63. Yet 98 Labour MPs didn’t vote (just 178 out of its 256 total voted).
The DUP did back the government so in some ways the result was academic. What has upset some Labour MPs is the confusion and chaos. Chris Leslie blogs for us that it was ‘an appalling error’. Many centrist backbenchers were pointing out last night that the original rational for abstaining (don’t fall into trap of opposing principles of the bill you agree with, keep powder dry for committee stage) was the same as Harriet Harman’s on the Tory welfare bill in 2015. Back then, Jeremy Corbyn was the only leadership candidate who voted against, a move that gave rocket boosters to his ‘new politics’. Today, the NEC meets to discuss a plan (the Guardian reports) for a members’ online consultation on Brexit. Corbyn has the numbers to kill that off, for now.
5. OH LORDY
Away from the Commons, the government suffered another massive defeat on Brexit in the Lords. They voted by 283 to 131 for a Baroness Smith motion calling on the government to take all steps to avoid a no-deal exit and to provide time for the Lords to consider necessary legislation. There was crucial cross-party support and crossbench backing (11 Tories and 42 crossbenchers). What was just as striking was the small number of Tory loyalists who turned out. If Cooper is approved in the Commons tonight, expect more fireworks at the other end of Parliament.
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