Julian Assange’s five-year standoff with police could end today when a court decides whether the warrant for his arrest should be quashed, potentially paving the way for him to leave Ecuador’s London embassy.

The WikiLeaks founder applied to have the warrant for skipping bail quashed, which would allow him to leave the Knightsbridge building, where he hid seeking asylum in 2012, without fear of arrest.

His lawyers argued the warrant was invalid because Swedish prosecutors have dropped their investigation over sexual assault and rape claims against Assange.

He claimed going to Sweden could mean extradition to the United States over the massive leak of information about the Iraq and Afghanistan wars that WikiLeaks published in conjunction with newspapers in 2010.

Last month, Westminster Magistrates’ Court heard he was suffering from depression, a frozen shoulder and painful toothache since hiding out in the embassy since June 2012.

Assange’s lawyer Mark Summers told the court that the bail arrest warrant had “lost its purpose and its function” when Sweden withdrew the European Arrest Warrant (EAW).

But Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) lawyer Aaron Watkins told the court it would be “absurd” if a defendant was effectively rewarded for managing to evade proceedings for sufficiently long that they fell away.

Watkins said the case against Assange was “extremely simple” in that he had failed to surrender to custody in answer to bail, therefore the warrant still stood.

When asked if a successful ruling would mean Assange to walk free, a CPS spokesman said: “Hypothetically yes, that would be our interpretation.”

Chief magistrate Emma Arbuthnot is due to hand down her judgment at 2pm on Tuesday. Either side could appeal the verdict.

Assange walked into the embassy in June 2012, seeking asylum, after he unsuccessfully fought his extradition through the English courts.

His time inside the embassy has been marked by regular appearances at its balcony to address crowds of supporters who have gathered at various stages of his legal battles.

For three years, the Metropolitan Police maintained a permanent guard outside the embassy in case he came out but stopped in 2015, citing the cost.

In 2016, a UN panel concluded Assange was being arbitrarily detained and called on Swedish and British authorities to end Assange’s “deprivation of liberty”.

Julian Assange: How he ended up at Ecuadorian embassy

Assange was accused of rape and molestation by two women, who were unnamed WikiLeaks supporters, after a trip to Sweden in August 2010. Swedish prosecutors issued a warrant for his arrest in November, after he had left the country.

In December, Assange was arrested in London and bailed. He spent the next 18 months fighting extradition through the courts.

In May 2012, he suffered his final defeat when the Supreme Court ruled he should be extradited. Three weeks later, he stunned the world when he walked into the embassy seeking asylum.

This was granted in August but he still faced arrest if he left the embassy.

In August 2015, the charges of molestation and unlawful coercion were discontinued as they were subject to five-year statutes of limitations under Swedish law.

Assange still faced the more serious allegation of rape, which is subject to a 10-year limit.

But in May 2017, Swedish prosecutor Marianne Ny announced she was discontinuing this case as well.

“All possibilities to conduct the investigation are exhausted,” she said. “In order to proceed with the case, Julian Assange would have to be formally notified of the criminal suspicions against him.

“We cannot expect to receive assistance from Ecuador regarding this. Therefore the investigation is discontinued.”

Assange said he feared being sent to Sweden would mean a further extradition to the US to face charges over WikiLeaks’ leaking of military and diplomatic cables.

The Foreign Office condemned this, saying it “completely rejects any claim that Julian Assange is a victim of arbitrary detention”.

They added Assange was “in fact, voluntarily avoiding lawful arrest by choosing to remain in the Ecuadorean embassy”.

In May last year, Swedish prosecutor Marianne Ny said she was withdrawing the EAW because Assange’s refusal to come to Sweden meant “all possibilities to advance the investigation have now been exhausted”.

This meant the bail warrant was the only thing keeping Assange in the embassy.

British police have said the charge of skipping bail is a much less serious offence than rape but Assange could still face up to a year in jail if convicted.

Ecuador awarded Assange citizenship in January, hours after the British government refused a request for him to be given diplomatic status, which would have given Assange immunity from arrest.